‘You can tell it’s bad here because even the death of Ian Smith last month did not arouse much hostile comment’, claims Christopher Thompson writing in this weeks edition of The Spectator.
While conceding that Britain’s Prime Minister, Gordon Brown may have ‘done some macho posturing’ over Zimbabwe, not many people in Zimbabwe see much prospect for change.
Thompson says that since Zimbabwe’s ruling party, Zanu (PF) introduced a price freeze, thousands of people have been imprisoned under, what he calls ‘the Orwellian-sounding’ charge of ‘non-compliance, while managing directors of big companies are being pursued and ‘banged’ up by Mugabe’s paramilitary organisation, the Green Bombers.
Thompson writes about the flood of Zimbabwean refugees into South Africa, known there as the ‘fence-jumpers,’ which it is claimed is giving rise to a new breed of economic opportunists.
‘These traders and petty entrepreneurs cross into South Africa – braving the crocodile-infested waters of the Limpopo – sometimes for a morning, at other times for many weeks. They stock up on consumer goods and hike back into Zimbabwe to flog their wares. One Harare-based truck owner told me he used to make the trip down south once every three months. Now things are so bad he does his 1 500km runs once a week. ‘Souh Africa is the land of plenty – anything you want,’ he said. Another businessman said, ‘For Zimbabweans, its Mecca down there.’ This kind of cross-border trade – it is also conducted with Botswana and Mozambique – is now perhaps the country’s most important industry, the oild for its spluttering economic engine,’ writes Thompson.
Considering whether Zimbabweans can anticipate change on the horizon, Thompson says, ‘only for the worse.’ Citing recent government legislation that could spell the end of foreign investment: The Indigenisation and Empowerment Bill requires that foreign companies sell 51 percent of their shares to local people, ‘effectively nationalising’ all foreign-owned enterprises.
Thompson believes South Africa’s President Thabo Mbeki’s attempts to mediate a resolution in Zimbabwe are pinned on his fear of ‘the spectre of a failed state on his doorstep, as he steps intto the limelight of the 2010 World Cup.’
Quite why Thompson believes Mbeki is motivated to find a solution is a puzzle. For the past five years Mbeki has stood on the sidelines with his so-called ‘quiet diplomacy’ and watched Zimbabwe rapidly decline. And Mbeki will be out of office by the time South Africa hosts the FIFA World Cup. His interest in leaving a ‘triumph’ must surely be questioned.Many commentators in South Africa have privately argued that Mbeki, if anything, has been highly supportive of Mugabe and his policies.
Thompson says Mbeki is ‘pulling his weight’ now to find a solution through the SADC-led mediation talks. His motivation, many observers have said, is less out of concern for Zimbabweans, and more to do with international pressure.
Also, it should not be overlooked, Mbeki is fighting his own domestic battles with a succession race for the leader of the African National Congress, that will prove to test South Africa’s democracy to the limit. So far, the signals are pointing in similar directions to what has unfolded in Zimbabwe – one party rule.
Post published in: Uncategorized