Is Makoni a damp squib?

But why are those who are excited about the event, excited? According to reports, Makoni is not breaking alone from Mugabe’s political vice. Makoni, it is reported, is backed by many a heavy-weight of the ZANU-PF inner circle: First Vice President Joseph Msika, Dumiso Dabengwa, the former ZIPRA intelligence supreme, former commander of the Zimbabwean army and spouse of Vice President, Joyce Mujuru, Vitalis Zvinavashe and Ibbo Mandaza the ZANU-PF intellectual luminary and others not yet disclosed. Apparently the revolt against Mugabe has been simmering for many months, if not years.

To the outside world and particularly those in sympathy with the majority of Zimbabweans, who are on the receiving end of Mugabe’s tyranny, prospects of the final outcome of current developments are music to the ears. Imagine Zimbabwe’s economy restored to its former glory of bread basket of the region, instead of the basket case abyss scenario of the present! One can imagine the millions of economic refugees streaming back to the homeland, to pick up the individual pieces of their dear lives and begin the arduous task of rebuilding the economy of their country devastated by a political maniac, who believes his elevation to leader of the liberation war against another maniac of a different colour, Ian Smith, was a licence to play God the almighty and pretend to be monarch of all he surveys, in Zimbabwe, SADC, AU and the world. One can imagine it will be hard to bring down the inflation rate, now estimated at a mind-boggling 66 000% to single digit figures, acceptable in the region and in the world. Optimists and people of goodwill see the advent of Makoni, the rebel, as a godsend in the almost godforsaken situation, next door.

On the other hand, there are some who pooh-pooh the belated advent of Makoni and his cronies. They believe the woebegone situation in that land is almost irretrievable. Who is Simba Makoni, they ask. Where has he been? How can he bring about positive changes in the political developments in the country, when he still swears by ZANU-PF? Can a ZANU-PF adherent overturn the policies he has helped formulate and endorsed all these years, so assiduously, especially since 2000, when the venom of the war veterans, was unleashed over the unsuspecting compatriots?

Doubting Thomases’ skepticism is not farfetched. Mugabe is a brute, a dictator, a tyrant, a cock-a-hoop political charlatan whose political mainstay, in Zimbabwe and SADC is the pillorying and lampooning of the likes of Blair and Bush as the instigators of his and Zimbabwe’s woes; but Mugabe could not have formulated and executed these policies and programmes alone. He acted in concert with his party, his cabinet and particularly with comrades in the politburo, the highest and innermost structure in ZANU-PF, in which Makoni served. What Mugabe is guilty of, Makoni and the rest of them, cannot be inculpable of. People do not see how the ‘rebels’ can suddenly extricate themselves from the mess they, Mugabe and ZANU-PF have plunged the country into. The leader of MDC, is not alone in describing Makoni as ‘old wine in new bottles.” There are some who are actually thinking Makoni is ZANU’s political stunt to prolong Mugabe and ZANU-PF leadership in Zimbabwe politics. A political decoy! There is certainly a mixed reception to the news of the emergence of Makoni, the political dragon-slayer. How can he do what he says he wants to do, while a loyal member of ZANU-PF? Yes, he wanted to stay ZANU-PF, though Mugabe has frustrated his mole ambitions by expelling him forthwith, before he could take many for a wild-west gallop! Observers feel he lacks the political party image of the Chimurenga heroes, for example late Tongogara or even the disgraced Edgar Tekere, to be an instant magnet!

Not all observers dismiss Makoni out of hand, nor believe he wields a Messianic wand. If speculation about his backers is true, then Makoni may yield dramatic results at the approaching presidential elections. The men and women whose names are bandied around as being behind Makoni, are certainly not people of political straw. They are political heavyweights, whose role in the Chimurenga is widely acknowledged and whose names have remained of household validity, in the independence epoch. They may not command as much veneration, as the name, ‘comrade Bob,’ but their names are not to be sniffed at, particularly at this moment of tension and anxiety, when the well-wishers and helpless Zimbabweans are groping around, dreaming dreams to reverse the politico-economic meltdown prevailing in the country, threatening to write off Zimbabwe as a failed state. To be over and done with, the stalemate!

The days of miracles have long passed. Nowadays, miracles are painstakingly planned and hatched in the dark corridors of political subversion, in the underground. If Makoni and his co-conspirators have been working at their plot craftily, for some time, building subterranean structures which can deliver a miracle on March 29, 2008, then, why not?

We definitely know, Makoni is standing for presidency against Mugabe. Assuming he wins, what then? He cannot rule without a loyal Parliament, in terms of the country’s constitution. Since Makoni is standing as an independent, to win power, he needs a clear majority of independents who support him. He cannot depend on MPs who belong to ZANU-PF or MDC, to defect suddenly from their parties to support his dispensation. There is the catch! Mutambara faction’s support must be welcome to Makoni, but it is a metaphorical drop in the ocean, if the world has to see the back of comrade Bob.

It is hoped Makoni underground machinery, has been so oiled, and so good, that it has identified likeminded independents in all the parliamentary constituencies up for grabs in next month’s elections; otherwise all the media hype is naught but a damp squib!