Mbeki’s desperate efforts

 It was a desperate attempt to get the monkey off his back. Zimbabwe and Aids – self-inflicted wounds – have dogged him throughout his presidency. The two issues go to the heart of what’s been wrong with his tenure and what has led to his downfall.

At the core of Mbeki’s problems has been his inability to level with the SA public. His engagement with Zimbabwe is littered with statements which were later denied or found to be untrue. Like telling George W Bush on the lawns of the Union Buildings that the warring parties in Zimbabwe were negotiating and that a solution was around the corner, only for the statement to be denied by both parties before the day was out.

At the height of the Jackie Selebi controversy Mbeki assured a group of clergymen that they should trust him to act if there were anything untoward. When Selebi was finally suspended, he claimed not to have known what his police commissioner was up to. To nobody’s surprise, it emerged this week that Mbeki had been in no fewer than 10 meetings at which the Selebi issue was discussed.

Why does the president do this to himself? How does he expect to enjoy public trust in the face of such duplicity? Why sacrifice your credibility for people such as Selebi and Robert Mugabe? They aren’t worth the candle.

It would have been a source of some comfort to many had he confronted public disquiet over events since Polokwane, assuring people that everything was under control. Instead he chose to ignore such a watershed event. He left everybody wondering what was in his head and how he intended to deal with it.

And at the weekend he said Polokwane had changed nothing. He must have been on Mars not to have noticed. Polokwane changed everything. He’s no longer top dog, for one. The baton has passed.

It’s hard not to feel sorry for him. It should not have ended in tears. A graceful exit was his for the taking. In Cape Town last week, one got the sense that people had come not to listen, but to ogle at the carcass of his career. It was more a curiosity-value event than an agenda-setting one.

Everything around him has been so absolutely gloomy he’s desperate for some good news. So from his elevated presidential podium Mbeki “congratulated the parties to the Zimbabwe dialogue for their truly commendable achievements and encouraged them to work together to resolve the remaining procedural matter”. It was manna from heaven for Mugabe.

How can Mbeki be so gullible? Does he really expect us to believe such twaddle? Mugabe has not shown any remorse or compunction for the destruction he’s visited on the country. In fact he’s treated Mbeki’s so-called mediation effort with utter disdain, unilaterally naming an election date, and rejecting opposition demands for a new constitution before elections are held.

The situation on the ground has never been better suited for a Mugabe victory. The opposition is in disarray; Simba Makoni’s entry will splinter it even further. Mbeki’s comments will make Mugabe’s inevitable triumph more digestible to his African brothers, if not the international community. That, I would suggest, has always been Mbeki’s intention – to help Mugabe’s cause. The two men have been blessed with weak opposition with a penchant for infighting.

Zimbabwe will be sorted out some day. Not by Mbeki. He had an opportunity to achieve something that would have been cherished by posterity. Unfortunately he fluffed it; just as he’s bungled his own presidency.