Mugabe – who garnered 43.2 percent of the vote compared to 47.8 percent won by opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the first round ballot on March 29 – enters the run-off contest as an underdog, the first time in more than two decades that the veteran leader has been billed as the most likely looser in a major election.
Political commentator and chairman of the National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) political pressure groups, Lovemore Madhuku, said Mugabe could block the release of an unfavourable poll result or he could simply pressure the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) to declare him the winner.
Such a declaration of victory would be followed by a quick inauguration, enabling the newly elected Mugabe to crack down on the opposition and other dissenting voices, said Madhuku, warning Zimbabweans not to think that they will simply walkover Mugabe come next month.
“It is very unlikely that he will accept defeat, said Madhuku, speaking at an event organised by civic society groups in Harare to mark Africa Day. Â
June 27 might actually be the beginning of a long struggle, it will be difficult for the regime to accept defeat,” added Madhuku, whose NCA brings together churches, opposition political parties, women and civic rights groups, labour and the student movement.
Speaking at the same event, Bulawayo Agenda executive director Gordon Moyo said Mugabe and his ruling ZANU PF party have become addicted to power after 28 years at the helm and would attempt to hold on to it despite the outcome of elections.
I am very cautious about whether they will let it go and handover power, said Moyo. “They will not allow the process of democracy to go through . . . there is a team of people at the top that has benefited from the system and cannot give up.”
There have been conflicting statements from Mugabe’s government over whether he would willingly give up power in the event of defeat next month. Â Â
One of Mugabe’s closest lieutenants and his chief election agent Emmerson Mnangagwa was quoted by state media on Monday as having said that the veteran leader would accept the outcome of the second presidential vote including an opposition victory.
But several other leaders of the ruling ZANU PF have in recent weeks threatened that the party was not even contemplating giving up power despite losing to Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC)
party in March.
Mugabe has himself vowed never to give up power to Tsvangirai, whom he accuses of being a stooge of Zimbabwe’s former colonial power, Britain.
Justice Minister Patrick Chinamasa told ZimOnline on Monday that talk of Mugabe agreeing to give up power was premature because ZANU PF was in the first place going to emerge winners in the presidential run-off
election.
He said: “ZANU PF will not lose the run-off, so the issue of handing over power is out of question. They are day-dreaming if they think ZANU PF will lose.
The run-off election is being held amid worsening food shortages and an economic recession shown in the world’s highest inflation rate that is close to a million percent according to some estimates.
Such a scenario would mean certain and emphatic electoral defeat for any sitting government but analysts say a blistering campaign of political violence against MDC structures and supporters might just tilt the scales in favour of Mugabe. – ZimOnline
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