The report dubbed “Negotiating Zimbabwe’s Transition” accused hardliners in President Robert Mugabe’s ruling ZANU-PF party, including senior military leaders, of trying to retain power by force.
It blamed the Mugabe camp of sponsoring violence to prevent Mr Tsvangirai from winning the 27 June presidential run-off.
MDC alerted a plot to assassinate some of its leadership, including Tsvangirai upon return to Zimbabwe for the re-run campaign.
“Given the level of violence, there seems almost no way to hold a credible second-round vote”, says Francois Grignon, Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director.
“All parties should still aim for this in the best conditions possible, but a negotiated solution between ZANU-PF and the MDC should be the higher priority, since it is far likelier to resolve the crisis peacefully”.
The group suggested an African-led mediation with wider international backing to give the best chance for a peaceful and definitive resolution to the Zimbabwean crisis.
Such a mediation should secure an agreement between the MDC and Zanu-PF, removes the need for a run-off and obtain guarantees for security service loyalty to an MDC-led administration, the group suggested.
Upon attaining power, Tsvangirai has been advised to reach out to his foes and form a government that includes Zanu-PF moderates.
The Brussels group also advised security guarantees for Mr Mugabe, the military and others.
If the hardliners retain their power through violence and/or fraud, African and other states and the Security Council will need to treat the regime as illegitimate and take other appropriate measures. However, with strong African-led mediation, concerted wider international backing and political will from both the MDC and moderate elements of Zanu-PF, a solution can be found to this crisis, said Andebrhan Giorgis, Crisis Group’s Africa Senior Adviser.
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