Election observers as waste of time

ELECTION observers representing the Southern African Development Community have started fanning out across Zimbabwe in anticipation of the presidential run off election scheduled for two weeks' time, says The Weekender, Johannesburg in an editorial.


The odds are that they are wasting their time. Political, social and economic conditions in the country have deteriorated to such an extent in recent weeks, it is doubtful many of them will be able to take up their posts — if polling stations can be set up at all.

Vast parts of the country have been taken over by gangs consisting of youth militias and so-called war veterans, aided by the police and the military. These gangs have been campaigning aggressively for Robert Mugabe and intimidating anybody perceived to favour opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai.

Zanu (PF) has ejected nongovernmental organisations that were providing food aid to starving villagers in rural areas, and independent media have been denied access. Senior commanders of the police and army have stated in no uncertain terms that they will not accept any outcome other than a victory for Mugabe — who polled fewer votes than Tsvangirai in the first round.

All of this leaves little room for any conclusion other than that the June 27 election will be an even bigger farce than the first round of elections, which was marred by widespread allegations of intimidation and vote-rigging in favour of the incumbent, as has become the pattern in Zimbabwean elections in recent years. Yet the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has little option but to stick to the campaign trail, no matter how badly the odds are stacked against it, and in spite of real threats to the physical wellbeing of its leaders.

The alternative would be to hand the election to Mugabe on a platter and ensure several more years of authoritarian rule in spite of the fact that the MDC now has a majority in Parliament. But wait. Another option has been put on the table, one that is sure to be tempting to opposition leaders and supporters alike because it promises respite from unbearable state repression and hope that the civil war that has been threatened if Tsvangirai wins can be avoided. That option is power sharing.

The MDC is coming under intense pressure to agree to the abandonment of the democratic process in favour of a negotiated solution.

This would result in the formation of a coalition government along the lines of that which has been running Kenya since a disputed election there led to political and ethnic violence. Such an outcome implies Mugabe would stay on as president with reduced executive powers and Tsvangirai be appointed to a newly created prime ministerial position.

President Thabo Mbeki is reported to be particularly keen on the coalition concept and it is not difficult to understand why — he has nailed his colours to the mast by refusing to take a hard line against Mugabe. Bringing the parties back from the brink would allow him to use the words quiet diplomacy and vindication in the same sentence once again without evoking howls of derision.

However, the MDC is apparently balking at the prospect of rewarding Mugabe’s tyrannical behaviour by entrenching him in power, and understandably so. The Zimbabwean state is so firmly in Zanu (PF)’s ruthless grip, it is hard to see how Tsvangirai and the MDC could exercise any sort of real power under such an arrangement.

Unless Mugabe can be persuaded to step down and allow the few doves that have survived among Zanu (PF)’s leadership to work with the MDC as equal partners in a government of national unity — intended to prepare the way for proper elections — the power-sharing concept is doomed to fail as it would amount to delaying the inevitable. As bad as things are in Zimbabwe now, keeping the lid on a simmering pot risks a build-up of pressure that could lead to an explosion.

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