Political analysts say miscalculations and mistakes have marked South Africa’s strategy toward its northern neighbour, leaving President Thabo Mbeki facing an election outcome that could extend rather than extinguish Zimbabwe’s political stand-off.
Mbeki is facing strident criticism for not using South Africa’s enormous economic muscle to rein in Mugabe, who is widely accused of misrule, vote rigging and repression of opponents.
Mugabe has resorted to the use of extra-legal means such as abductions and executions to cow the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). He has also refused to even countenance defeat to the MDC, with war-like rhetoric. Yet, Mbeki has not moved an inch.
Mugabe’s army generals continue to threaten a coup if Morgan Tsvangirai wins the poll.
Mbeki has been careful not to antagonise those who sympathise with Mugabe’s rhetoric, said Chris Maroleng, an analyst at Pretoria-based Institute for Security Studies.

John Stremlau, Professor of International Affairs at Johannesburg’s Witwatersrand University, said Mbeki did not have good options.
A dream scenario is a government of national unity that allows Mugabe to retire in dignity, Stremlau said. The problem is how do you go from here to there? It requires going through elections, but can you have free and fair elections?
Tsvangirai, though, has rejected a unified government.
Our view is that whoever gets the authority or mandate by the people will form what I would call an inclusive government as a show of magnanimity not as a show of negotiations, Tsvangirai told The Zimbabwean.
Maroleng said Mbeki’s hopes for a unity government had also been shattered by hardliners in Zanu (PF) and army generals.
South Africa’s policy was largely informed by an attempt to reform Zanu (PF) from within but the (Simba) Makoni thing collapsed in spectacular fashion, Maroleng said.
Pretoria had concluded that Zimbabwe’s military was very partisan in favour of Zanu (PF) and would block any change that brought the MDC to power.
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