It should be a phased engagement. There is a real danger that staying out will weaken the MDC. They need the ability to deliver reconstruction and must seize control of the reconstruction agenda, he said.
A lot of discussion is already going on with foreign ministries over the terms of engagement. The defining factors will be the benchmarks for democratic governance. The speed with which foreign investment starts flowing into Zimbabwe will depend on the progress of the rule of law.
Raftopoulos warned that the next round of opposition politics could be violent. It is essential that the MDC continues and strengthens its legacy of adherence to the rule of law.
The transitional period of the new government should be used to open up space, to reorganise and to put new issues on the agenda, especially the question of transitional justice. In the short term, the perpetrators of violence are likely to get away with it. But if the issues are not dealt with, they will fester.
Raftopoulos said the spirit of the agreement was not a good one, based as it was on expediency and characterised by reluctance on both sides. In this it is not unlike Lancaster House, but this time there is a greater sense of weakness on both sides.
Both Zanu (PF) and the MDC are internally exhausted. They both needed an agreement. As the situation moves forward, Zanu will be under as much if not more pressure that the MDC. They have lost their patronage capacity and it will be very difficult for them to pull out of the deal without becoming totally isolated within Africa and internationally, he said.
Raftopoulos warned that if the agreement breaks down, Zanu (PF) would resort to violence. There is no question whatsoever about this. It will be extreme, and the MDC majority in parliament will be finished within a month he said.
The battle within Zanu itself has not been resolved and it will continue. Mugabe has gone into terminal decline. He knew after the June elections that he had lost. Losing his sense of rightness has been the crucial turning point. The question of succession is now firmly on the agenda.
Within the MDC, although there are no policy differences between the Tsvangirai and Mutambara groupings, a re-unification of the party is unlikely in Raftopoulos’s view, although there may be a drift of members into what is perceived as the stronger party.