Southern African Development Community (SADC) leaders at an emergency summit in Johannesburg on Sunday ruled that Zimbabwe’s rival political leaders form a power-sharing government "forthwith" to end a debilitating political stalemate gripping the country since Mugabe’s controversial re-election last June.
The SADC, which brokered Zimbabwe’s September 15 power-sharing agreement, ruled that the Morgan Tsvangirai-led MDC and Mugabe’s ruling ZANU PF co-manage the ministry of home affairs, in charge of the police and whose control had been a stumbling block to the formation of a unity government.
Tsvangirai – who wants the MDC to have sole control of home affairs – immediately rejected the call to co-manage the portfolio with ZANU PF and said his party would not join the unity government.
He will meet the top leadership of his party tomorrow in Harare to decide the next step forward.
But a leading analyst, Eldred Masunungure, saw little viable option for Tsvangirai, saying failure to comply with the SADC ruling could leave the opposition leader shunned across Africa, the same way the late UNITA leader Jonas Savimbi was after rejecting African calls to end his rebel war in Angola.
Masunugure, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe (UZ), said under the tough circumstances that the opposition finds itself in their best bet would be to backtrack on their earlier threat to defy the SADC and instead agree to join the unity government "under protest".
"Given the resolution of the SADC – which was not a recommendation but a final decision – there are very few options for the Tsvangirai-led MDC other than to participate under protest," said Masunungure.
"It appears to me that the SADC resolution brings the Cabinet formation impasse to finality and does not seem to leave room for an appeal process," he said.
On Sunday SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salamao was emphatic that the 15-nation bloc wanted Zimbabwe’s power-sharing deal implemented immediately.
In his words the SADC wanted a unity government quickly established in Harare, "whether (all the Zimbabwean) parties agreed or not".
Mugabe readily accepted the summit ruling, not least because it endorsed his plan to deny the MDC sole control of home affairs while leaving all the other security arms of government including the army in the hands of his ZANU PF party.
Tsvangirai told journalists in Sandton, the venue of the regional summit, that he was "shocked and saddened" by the decision of SADC and suggested the African Union (AU) should step in to try to salvage the power-sharing agreement.
However, another UZ political scientist Michael Mhike saw little hope in Tsvangirai taking his case to Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital and seat of the AU.
"Tsvangirai is now caught up between a rock and a hard place," Mhike said.
"He has to be part of the all-inclusive government because taking the issue to the AU will not help his agenda. SADC is an organ of the AU and the AU will definitely adopt the same position reached by the regional block."
Mhike said Tsvangirai should participate in the unity government and should try to continue arguing his case from within the government.
Masunungure concurred: "Frankly, the road for appeals is blocked. To this extent, the MDC-Tsvangirai has to weigh its options very carefully and with sensitivity to its image and place within SADC (and Africa)."
Masunungure, who is also head of the Harare-based Mass Public Opinion Institute political think-tank, said Tsvangirai had to play his cards in such a way that any attempts to stick the detested Savimbi tag on him would fail.
While the MDC and Tsvangirai enjoy unquestioned popularity at home, being likened to Savimbi and his UNITA movement who were reviled in many parts of Africa would cripple attempts by the opposition to increase pressure on Mugabe by pushing for his isolation within Africa and beyond.
Mugabe’s government has already made strong attempts to draw parallels between UNITA and the MDC by accusing the opposition of recruiting and training youths in neighbouring Botswana to destabilise Zimbabwe.
The MDC and the Botswana government have dismissed the charges as unfounded and baseless, while Gaborone has also asked the SADC to send a fact-finding mission to Botswana to probe the allegations.
Zimbabwe’s power-sharing deal retains the 84-year old Mugabe as president while making Tsvangirai prime minister and Arthur Mutambara, who heads a breakaway faction of the MDC, will be deputy prime minister.
Analysts say only a government of national unity could be able to tackle Zimbabwe’s unprecedented recession seen in the world’s highest inflation of 231 million percent, 80 percent unemployment, acute shortages of food and basic commodities.
However prolonged bickering between Mugabe and his two younger rivals over allocation of key Cabinet posts has led many analysts to ask for how long the unity government – if it is eventually established – will be able to survive the three principals’ deep-seated animosity towards each other. – ZimOnline
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