Yet he holds his party and government in a grip which it has so far
proved impossible to break. It has been obvious for a long time that
the best hope for change in Zimbabwe is to separate him and his close
associates from the rest of his establishment. Surely, when those in
the middle ranks of the party, army, police, and business community
study their interests, they must know that their prospects of surviving
into a new era with some of their assets and privileges intact will be
much greater if they help force the old man out.
Fear of Mugabe, fear of an opposition which might not deliver on its
promises of immunity, and fear of an angry people who might tear them
apart, have so far held them back. But even this cowed and corrupted
constituency must have a breaking point. We may finally be approaching
it, as Zimbabwe struggles with an outbreak of cholera that has again
brought it to world attention, as ordinary soldiers riot, and as the
Central Bank reportedly contemplates selling off the country’s diamond
fields to Russia.
But it has to be added that Mugabe’s last days have been often
foretold. The rhetoric of John Sentamu or Desmond Tutu, however
passionate, will not move him from power, nor will the condemnations of
western politicians like Gordon Brown. Indicting Mugabe in the
international criminal court may be justified but it might postpone
rather than hasten the end. Threats of military intervention are empty,
since western countries have never seriously contemplated it, still
less African states, who in any case lack the means. South Africa could
certainly make things worse in Zimbabwe, by cutting off or reducing
fuel supplies or by closing the border, perhaps on the basis that it
must guard against the spread of cholera. But what if that did not
bring about a swift collapse of the regime but only an intensification
of the sufferings of ordinary Zimbabweans?
Negotiation remains the best hope. It is true that talks between the
parties, with the help of outside mediators, led only to a
power-sharing agreement that Mugabe manipulated, amended, and finally
discarded. But the negotiations which matter most are those behind the
scenes, aiming to peel off those supporters of the regime who are not
too compromised, who fear for their own future, and who can be brought
to a point of rebellion or at least of neutrality. This week’s Zanu-PF
conference, which many believe will reveal a demoralised and depressed
party, may give us some idea of how close we are to the tipping point.
The Guardian, (UK)
Post published in: News