Muluzi tipped to win Malawi presidency

The only published research has tipped Muluzi that he is also likely to
win the May 19, 2009 elections and become Malawi's Head of State.

Sunday Times news paper of Malawi's established media house, Blantyre
Newspapers Limited published on November 18, 2008 a research analysis
by a post graduate student in Political Science at the University of
the Western Cape, in South Africa, Felix Benson Lombe which indicates
Muluzi tops the chart of presidential candidates.

The analysis has been complimented by another report published in the
Tribune newspaper which says findings based on regional political
patronage, a scrutiny of party structures, substantive data obtained
from key informant surveys, group interviews, political literature,
reviews, observations of past voting pattern and quantitative data
interpretation shows that if political trends remain unchanged, Muluzi
will win the elections with about 2.3 million votes.

Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) is projecting to have about six million voters for the forthcoming general elections.

The Tribune reported that Tembo will come second in the polls with
about 1.9 million votes to be polled and President Mutharika, third
placed, will scoop about 1.2 million votes.

Other presidential contenders will share 0.5 million votes and 0.1 is likely to be null and void votes.

There are close to 6 million eligible voters in Malawi. Within the 6
million eligible voters, about 0.8 million belong to the category that
I shall call politically enlightened'. This enlightened category is
composed of civil servants, NGO workers, civil society organizations,
university lecturers and their students, top business captains as well
as educated fellows who do not belong to any of these groups. 

The enlightened category bothers itself with issues of political and
economic governance when choosing a leader. It is always long-tem
focused, writes Lombe in his political analysis published by Sunday
Times and also by The Tribune.

This enlightened category has a direct influence on the voting pattern
of a second category which I shall call carefree' category. These are
voters whose approach towards politics is apathetical and most of the
time their view of leaders and choice is influenced by the enlightened
category to which they are related either as dependents, spouses,
children or parents. There are debates as to the exact numbers of this
category but the consensus is that they are more that 0.8 million as
well.

The analysis says, besides the enlightened and carefree categories, is
a diehard category which does not easily change party affiliation. It
has high allegiance to particular leaders and particular parties. It
does not demand a lot but it cannot easily be influenced. 

Lombe said the majority in this category belong to rural areas where
political information can be easily twisted. This category can attend
rallies of any politician, gives you the impression that they will vote
for you but changes colours in the ballot box. This is the category
that most veteran politicians such JZU Tembo, Gwanda Chakuamba and
Muluzi cherish a lot. The approximate number of this category is 3
million.

The last category is what is known as political entrepreneurs
category. This category is composed of grass roots politicians and
villagers whose votes go to somebody who gives them observable
monetary benefits.

This category occupies the remaining 1.4 million. This category is
short-term focused in its interpretation of political benefits.

Going by the above four categories, it is easy to see that one's
probability of winning is determined by the share that he commands in
the diehard category as well as the other shares. It is within this
vein that prognosis of who is the likely winner in 2009 becomes
difficult. For example, while Tembo has a good portion in the diehard
category, his potion in enlightened category and political
entrepreneurs is very small.

As for Muluzi, while his share of diehard category is also
substantial, he is now commanding a small portion in political
entrepreneurs as well as enlightened category. Bingu on the hand
controls the enlightened category and its affiliated carefree category.
He has however a small portion in diehard. The end winner will
therefore be determined by his total shares in all these categories,
contends Lombe.

Lombe assert that Muluzi who portrays himself as a champion of the poor is man of the people, humble and approachable.

He [Muluzi] is probably the most physically energetic of all the three
presidents and this will work to his advantage during the campaign. By
working with Gwanda Chakuamba and some chiefs in Lower Shire, he will
also add to his roll some votes. Lombe state that President Mutharika
came in with promises of stamping out corruption through public sector
reforms, making hunger a history, developing infrastructure, tightening
security, improving the health delivery system as well as saving the
dwindling standard of education.

There is however something peculiar and strange with these promises:
they were all based on weaknesses of UDF.  In his four years, his
strengths have been the realization of food security (though recently
government imprudently sold to Zimbabwe), wide publicity of his
ant-corruption drive, road infrastructure, improved healthy and
education facilities, salary boost on chiefs and price regulation on
commercial crops, he points out.

According to the analysis, out of these five strengths, the anti-hunger
achievement, good commercial crops prices and salary boost for chiefs
has an impact for many that belong to the entrepreneur category.  His
performance on infrastructure and health has also a noticeable impact
on the enlightened category as well as the carefree category.

President Mutharika has however some challenges which need urgent
attention with regard to the diehard category because his party is not
deep rooted as he has not invested much in rural politics. 

There are no genuine party structures except those that were snatched
from UDF. This is very dangerous because allegiance of these committees
to DPP cannot be fully granted. Besides, one ought to note that being
in a committee at party's grassroots level is meant to be a source of
small spill-overs from above. Where these spill-overs are not there as
is the case of DPP, it really becomes hard to ensure that they
dedicatedly campaign for the party. After all, these DPP grassroots
committees tested the goodies of UDF party and they are making a
comparison, contends Lombe.

The analyst says Mutharika seem to be cushioned by too much confidence
about the support of the people in enlightened as well as carefree
category which is very dangerous.

Personality wise, [Mutharika] lacks interpersonal skills. As Thabo
Mbeki of South Africa, he is too isolated from the common man and
unapproachable even to his own party members. As Muluzi was doing, he
needs to be approachable and accessible to district governors and very
influential people in rural politics just to penetrate the diehard
category and expand his influence in the entrepreneurs' category.

On governance front, he is very wanting. He has little regard to
issues of constitution if they stand across his way. His luck is that
he has been getting public as well as civil society organizations'
sympathy even when he was breaking the constitution. To rural masses,
he will not lose anything if he continues to break the constitution
because issues of constitutionalism are not a priority to rural
political entrepreneurs and diehard when it comes to choosing a good
leader.

Lombe analyses: In short, Bingu commands the enlightened, as well as
the carefree category. He has also a good portion in the political
entrepreneurs though he shares this category with Muluzi and Tembo. He
has however a small portion in the diehard category. 

Despite his governance shortfall, he cannot be deserted by the
enlightened category since there is no alternative choice in areas that
matter to the enlightened category. Translated in terms of number of
seats, he will have an upper hand in towns and other urban where the
enlightened majority resides.

Lombe looks at Mutharika 'impact on the political entrepreneurs meaning
that he can also penetrate even in JZU's territories where there a few
diehards such as Lilongwe urban, Ntchisi, Salima, Kasungu as well as
Muluzi's Mulanje and Zomba.

On Tembo, Lombe relate to his major strength is that he commands a big
diehard category portion in central region. He also commands a small
portion of entrepreneurs because of the disputed claims about who
initiated the fertilizer subsidy programme. Some believe that he can
make a successful leader on this account.

The political analysis adds Unfortunately, these are his only
strengths. Tembo does not command a noticeable enlightened category and
apparently does not seem to care a lot that he has no support in this
category. His conduct in Parliament also makes him collide so much with
the enlightened category.

Tembo has too much confidence in his central region diehard category
that he rarely targets the other parts of the country. This might be a
bad strategy for him considering that Bingu has already penetrated in
his stronghold.

Lombe also notes that on the personal front, Tembo's past irritates the
enlightened category and his opponents will definitely use this as a
de-campaigning strategy.

The analysis also pointed out that the correctness of the common belief
that in African elections, a party in government and the serving
president usually win the elections might not be that absolute. 

Victor Nyirenda a third year Public Administration student at
Chancellor College of the University of Malawi also writing in the
Sunday Times contends that as clearly apparent, regionalism almost
brings each region into supporting a particular party, in which case,
UDF and coalition partners enjoy the Southern Region which is the most
populous.

Otherwise, notwithstanding their experience as a former ruling party
never-to-be-tricked by rigging, UDF is a great force that can give
Muluzi a boost in his bid to re-launch himself as next president,
writes Nyirenda.

Wongani Mugaba a Third year Media for Development student at Chancellor
College challenge that Muluzi has been facing a dwindling political
support among the electorate and within his party and says the lacking
grip on critical resources such as public broadcaster will affect
Muluzi bid.

But Nyirenda insist that those who argue against Muluzi's likelihood of
winning cite the 35 percent of all the votes that he amassed for
Mutharika as chief campaigner in 2004, and says the argument is quite
awkward and lacking substance.

First of all, we have to understand that Muluzi himself never stood as
president in this poll, and that it is actually the presidential
candidate that matters to the electorate. In this case, Dr. Bingu Wa
Mutharika, who portrayed himself as a very submissive personality apart
from being a stranger on the political front should be responsible for
the 35 per cent; while Muluzi gets the credit for managing to help such
a tough-go acquire that simple majority for the hot seat, writes
Nyirenda.

Secondly, the political market was very much stretched, with almost
five contestants battling out for the State House. It could therefore
be an unimaginable miracle for a single candidate to have more than 50
per cent of all the votes accredited to him/her, hence the 35 per cent
for Mutharika.

In conclusion, my word is Muluzi who enjoys popular grassroots' support stands a huge chance of winning the 2009 elections.

University of Malawi, Chancellor College political analyst Blessings
Chinsinga is on record to have told The Nation daily newspaper that
President Mutharika major deficit has shown disregard for the
Constitution.

The paper reported that Chinsinga said Mutharika might be drifting to
dictatorial tendencies because of the environment of his presidency
where he is trying to fight for political survival.

"A quick reflection on how he has faired gives the impression that
Bingu has miserably failed in almost all the spheres of rule of law,
respect of the Constitution, political tolerance among other," he
said. 

"These are surely issues of concern and the President could have done
better, but at the same time we have to be mindful of the adverse
political environment he finds himself in. Most of the actions are
largely motivated by his desire to ensure that he survives
politically," he said.

Muluzi will be contesting the polls for the third time after winning in
the first democratic elections in 1994 defeating dictator Ngwazi Dr
Kamuzu Banda and renewed his mandate I999 polls in which among other
candidates he defeated was the incumbent Mutharika who was the last in
the race.

Mutharika after the 1999 miserable loss contested in 2004 under the
banner of UDF and support of Muluzi and will be contesting the
presidency next year for the third consecutive time.

Tembo lost in 2004 and will be running for the top post for the second time.