Political analysts' have been very vocal on the subject all week. I've
never quite understood what qualifies someone to be called or to
describe him/herself as a political analyst' but they certainly have
an awful lot to say for themselves! They are ready to air their
opinions on every aspect of the subject; supported by unnamed sources
these political analysts seek to sway public opinion one way or the
other depending on their own political affiliations no doubt.
Like many others in the diaspora – anxious about the future of our
country – I too have spent the week trying to analyse the decision that
has to be made by the MDC. Armed with a pencil and notepad I have
attempted to use my own knowledge and understanding of the situation to
list what considerations should be taken into account before making
this crucial decision for Zimbabwe's future. Before one can even start
the process there are certain facts that have to be acknowledged. In
the eleven or so months that have elapsed since the March elections
Zimbabwe and the world have changed. Cholera has killed over 3000
people in Zimbabwe, 94% of the population is unemployed and on Zanu
PF's own admission the country can no longer feed its own people. We
cannot eat what we do not have said the Acting Minister of Finance in
his Budget speech And in an acknowledgement that the Zimbabwean
currency is now worthless, Chinamasa announced that price controls will
be abandoned and the Zimbabwe dollar will operate alongside the US
dollar and the SA rand. How that will actually work is not at all clear
but what is clear is that Zimbabwe is teetering on the edge of complete
collapse. That is the reality that the decision makers have to face. In
the wider world too the economic collapse means that the so-called
developed world will look very carefully at economic help for poorer
nations, let alone those that have collapsed through gross
mismanagement. Those people who thought that a GNU would bring
immediate western aid for Zimbabwe now have to think very carefully in
the light of the changed situation before they make their decision
today.
For me there are two internal considerations that take absolute
priority. One, is it the right decision for the mass of the people, now
and for the foreseeable future? No one in their right mind can believe
that joining the government will bring about an immediate change in the
desperate plight of the people but maybe, just maybe, the presence of
the MDC will moderate some of the more extreme policies of Mugabe's
government. Two, the release of the activists rotting in gaol is
non-negotiable. Jestina Mukoko and all the other activists must be
brought to court immediately and either tried in open court or
released. There can be no just settlement while fellow Zimbabweans are
unjustly detained. Those as I see it are absolute priorities before the
MDC can enter into this alliance with the Mugabe regime.
Making decisions is never easy but I have found it useful to list the
arguments For and Against and then decide which side carries more
weight. In addition to reasoned argument, there is the emotional aspect
which cannot be ignored. More than anything else, Zimbabweans need to
feel hope for themselves and for their children's futures. So, why
should the MDC enter this unholy alliance' The first point in its
favour is that the people appear to want it, presumably because they
believe that their lives will be improved once there is a settlement.
By joining a GNU the MDC will gain experience in government and finally
this is the much vaunted African solution'. Whatever we may think of
SADC and the AU there is no doubt that failure to join will bring down
Africa's wrath on Tsvangirai's head and give further weight to the
notion that he and his party are no more than puppets of the west.
On the other side, Against joining is the undeniable fact that Mugabe
is not to be trusted. Bitter experience has shown us that his word
means nothing. It is a power-sharing agreement with no real power for
the MDC; even in the matter of ministerial appointments we have
absolutely no guarantee that Robert Mugabe will play fair. To join such
a government will severely damage the MDC's image. Up until now they
have held the moral high ground, how will the world and the west in
particular respond to an illegitimate government that now contains
those very same people they once believed were on the side of
democracy? If the MDC decides to join, it will be seen to be an
endorsement of Mugabe's policies. It will take the pressure off his
regime, leaving him unpunished for the destruction he has wreaked on
the country. Even the MDC's majority in the House cannot be relied on,
knowing how Zanu PF operates. There is a very real danger that the MDC
will become no better than puppets of the regime unable to exercise any
autonomy. Mugabe is after all the man who has blatantly ignored the
will of the people as expressed in the March elections. Can he now be
trusted to abide by the rules? Will not Morgan Tsvangirai and this
party be swallowed up in just the same way as the late Joshua Nkomo?
These questions and so many others must be going through the minds of
every thinking person as the MDC considers the options. What will
happen if the deal collapses in a few months, what might that mean for
Zimbabwe? For me, as a Zimbabwean in the UK diaspora and longing to go
home, all I can do is hope that their decisions are guided by what is
best for the people, all the people, and not by their own dreams of
power, big motorcars, handsome salaries and lucrative perks. Having
considered the arguments For and Against and although I can clearly see
the latter is the stronger side, I have very reluctantly come to the
conclusion that the MDC must go along with this flawed Agreement. There
are some small signs that their presence in government may well find
sympathisers even within the ranks of Zanu PF. The truth is that Mugabe
needs the MDC as much as they need to be part of government. It
requires, in the words of the BBC correspondent, nothing less than a
leap of faith on the part of the MDC. I believe they will make that
leap.
Yours in the (continuing) struggle, PH. aka Pauline Henson author of
Countdown a political detective story set in Zimbabwe and available
from Lulu.com   Â