DURBAN - Cereals production could fall by 50 percent in parts of southern Africa in the long term due to climate change, causing increased hunger and poverty, a researcher told an agriculture conference on Wednesday.South Africa is the largest carbon emitter on the continent, mainly due
to its reliance on coal to produce most of its electricity.
Changes in the region’s climate are expected to cause worse flooding in
some parts and longer drought in others, reducing crops and raising
prices. Other areas may face lower soil fertility, reducing harvests.
"Overall, the effects of climate change in southern Africa are expected
to be negative," said Constansia Musvoto, a researcher at South
Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR).
"Research that has been done shows that cereal production, for example,
could fall by as much as 50 percent by 2080 in some areas and other
areas in the region may be completely unsuitable for agriculture by
then."
She said parts of South Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique — the region’s main cereal growers — could be affected.
Southern Africa relies heavily on agriculture for food and many of the
region’s economies are dependent on farming exports for economic growth.
"It (climate change) is very worrying because agriculture is a critical
sector for southern Africa economies and any fall in production will
obviously have grave consequences," said South African Confederation of
Agricultural Unions chief executive Ishmael Sunga.
Falling harvests have increased the number of hungry people.
The U.N’s World Food Programme said in January it would need to secure
food aid for about 6.5 million people in southern Africa by the end of
April, the bulk of them in Zimbabwe which is facing a humanitarian
crisis and chronic food shortages.
Severe floods in Zambia and Mozambique have also forced governments in
those countries to increase grain and cereal imports to feed hungry
people in flood-hit areas.
Musvoto said small-scale farmers were the hardest hit.
"Among small-scale farmers the threat of climate change is higher
because of widespread poverty," she said. "There is an increased
likelihood of crop failures, livestock diseases and therefore
livelihood insecurity."
Last year, South Africa’s government said climate change could cut the
maize crop in the biggest producer of maize on the continent by 20
percent within 15 to 20 years.
The western part of the country is seen becoming much drier while the east is afflicted with increasingly severe storms.
As its western regions dry out, South Africa would have to turn to more
drought-resistant strains of maize, or corn, and rely more on the role
of genetically modified strains.
(Editing by James Macharia and Peter Blackburn)
Reuters
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