ALEX MAGAISA: Well Violet, first ofall you have to say that 100 days is always a figure that you pick outbecause it's just 100 days, it's very difficult to judge whether or notthere is anything tangible that has taken place within that period.What I have to say is that whatever we discuss in relation to this 100days we have to appreciate that it has been tainted very much so by thetragedies that has affected the Prime Minister Mr Tsvangirai.
Firstly the loss of his wife and secondly the loss of his grandson, soif anything this is the biggest highlight of what has happened in thelast 100 days although it's a negative highlight. So everything we sayand everything that we discuss will have to have that caveat.
What you cannot doubt about Mr Tsvangirai over the last 100 days isthat he has shown the will, commitment and a genuine interest infurthering the national interest. In fact in many ways I think he hasgiven way too much in order to make sure that things work but he isdealing with people who have enjoyed power for too long and people whoare finding it very difficult to give up the old ways.
So in terms of the achievements – I'm sure we will be touching on anumber of things – there have been a lot of challenges, there's nodoubt about that but I've always been one of those people who have feltthat Mr Tsvangirai and the MDC didn't have much of a choice in Marchand did what they had to do to join this inclusive government becausethey were genuine in their interest to make things work for Zimbabwe.And I still see it as a process rather than as an event and what wehave seen in the last 100 days is part of that process and no doubtthere have been huge challenges.
GONDA: Let me go to Professor Raftopoulos and perhaps he can give ussome tangible examples and also to go back to what Mr Tsvangirai saidon the day of his inauguration, he said: To achieve this vision thenew government must implement the democratisation process withoutdelay.
He said: Parliament will pass legislation to restore the peoples'freedoms, create the mechanism through which a peoples' constitutioncan be created and re-establish the rule of law and promote independentmedia. Now Brian, how successful has he been in implementing theseplans – granted it's early days and, as Alex has said, the primeminister was hit by a set of personal tragedies in the first few months?
BRIAN RAFTOPOULOS: Yah I just want to reiterate what Alex has said inthat I think we all knew this was going to be a fragile, tenuous, veryuneasy relationship but one where the MDC had little option. Havingsaid that, it was also very clear from the beginning that this kind ofarrangement was going to be a battle for the State between the twoparties from its inception and indeed that's what it's turned out to be- the battle over the ministries, the battle over what portfolios fallunder particular ministries, the continued detention of abductees andthe sense of continued obstructive behaviour of the more retrogressiveelements of the security wing of Zanu-PF.
But I think we've also seen a kind of new hope that emerged in the 100days, a sense that something else was possible and the beginning of, atleast the first steps of accountability of the ruling party, withinparliamentary discussions, over discussions on the Reserve Bank, thediscussions that are taking place around the media and of course thevery controversial discussions that are taking place around theconstitution.
These are difficult processes but they are also processes that open upnew possibilities as well as hold a danger of a relapse if things beginto fall apart. So I think it is early days but there have been bothpros and cons. I think there are still enormous challenges ahead and Ithink that the MDC certainly still has to assert its strength withinthe State, within the government, to demand more of Zanu-PF and to beable to create more spaces for democratic practise.
GONDA: Alex, let me come back to you. He did set out what many havedescribed as a very ambitious agenda – you know the issue of the civilservants remuneration, detainees' release, engaging with theinternational community so in your view which of these issues has hegotten the most success?
MAGAISA: Well sometimes politicians, their business is to make promisesand to try and fulfil those promises and not every promise is alwaysfulfilled. What we have seen with the new inclusive government is thatMr Tsvangirai did promise that there would be some changes in the waythat the civil servants would be remunerated and I don't think that youcan go to any civil servant today who does not appreciate the fact thatthey are getting at least that 100 US dollars which they could onlydream of last year this time.
So in terms of fire-fighting I would say re-stabilisation of theeconomy, we can't say it is stable but in terms of the fire-fightingrole that the government has, I would give them 8 out of 10 for thatbecause it has really stopped the downward slide that the country wasgoing through for the past ten years or so which was becomingaccelerated by the day. In terms of growth of course, it's no more than2 out of 10 there because we haven't seen anything tangible to say thatthe economy can actually grow in any big way, mainly because thegovernment does not have sufficient cash resources to make these thingswork.
And that's where I want to point out one of the achievements in fact ofthis government in the last 100 days, is the re-engagement with theinternational community. When you see Minister of Finance Biti going toWashington, talking to the administration, the US administration,Congress, the IMF, World Bank, coming to the UK to speak to the Britishgovernment – these are things that Zanu-PF has not been able to do forthe past ten years or so. So, it is the first step in trying to rebuildthat relationship, but we know, as everybody does, that it's not goingto work unless Zimbabwe itself also reforms politically because it'salways going to be a condition upon which that engagement is going tobe predicated.
GONDA: Still on that issue of re-engagement with the internationalcommunity Alex, at the stage we are at, what would be better forZimbabwe right now, humanitarian aid or developmental aid, and ishumanitarian aid necessarily a good thing?
MAGAISA: Well, humanitarian aid is there as an act of necessity. You'vegot people who are starving, you've got people who cannot have thingsotherwise and therefore you need to assist them. That you will find inany countries or places where there is crisis – Darfur, the Congo,anywhere. And then there is development aid – this is aid assistancethat is designed to help the government carry out projects. You couldsay in a sense, that if somebody is sitting by the river, do you comeand give them fish or do you give them an opportunity to catch theirown fish? I think if you continue to give them fish without giving themthe opportunity to do the fishing themselves it creates an unnecessaryand unhelpful dependency syndrome.
So I do think that the aspect of humanitarian aid has to be explored alittle further, I'm not an expert in the area but I don't believe thathumanitarian aid on its own is the panacea to Zimbabwe and I thinkthere's got to step up, there's got to be some belief in Mr Tsvangiraiand the MDC is now in government and try and help them to see if theycan actually catch the fish by themselves.
GONDA: Is that possible Brian, and also what do you think about theinternational response to the call by the inclusive government tosupport the GNU, despite the fact that there are still some toxicissues'?
RAFTOPOULOS: I think that the need for assistance is absolutelyessential. I think that the international community have very quicklyto come to a more decisive position. The humanitarian plus position isjust a holding operation. Certainly the humanitarian assistance isnecessary but there's a very strong need now for more substantivedevelopmental assistance and I think therefore that the call by the MDCgovernment is indicative that they realise without some very strongsupport on the economic front this GPA will die. It's a real threat tothe future of the GPA and any future prospects of building support,building mobilisation in the country around getting through this crisisdepends on some sustainable or at least initiation of sustainablegrowth in the economy.
So in a sense while one understands the concerns of the internationalcommunity around the continued issues that they would like to seeaddressed, I think waiting for all those issues to be addressed is veryproblematic and I think it's likely to produce more deleterious resultsthan they might possibly imagine. I think they are going to have totake some more imaginative and some more risky steps in producing moredevelopment assistance because the future of opposition politics anddemocratic politics depends on some kind of sustainability andstabilisation of the economy.
GONDA: Some will say isn't that what the Mugabe regime would actuallywant – you know international help to come in and then they just revertto the same old ways?
RAFTOPOULOS: Of course it's a danger but to me the biggest danger is toallow the situation to continue to deteriorate or after this initialbeginning of stabilisation to then starve the economy of futureassistance – that's more likely in my view to threaten the democraticforces than it is Zanu-PF. So I think it is a calculated risk but onethat must be made on the basis of what are the balance of forces in thecountry and who is likely to gain from a greater stabilisation, agreater sense of security amongst the working people of this countryand with that, the capacity to fight for more status within a morestable economy.
GONDA: What about on the issue of the civil servants as Alex has beentalking about, does the teachers' threat of strike tarnish MorganTsvangirai's early victory for example, of being able to pay the civilservants 100 US dollars per month?
RAFTOPOULOS: Yah certainly I think any major public sector strike willthreaten a new arrangement like this, which sends us back to the pointof what kind of assistance needs to be given now to stabilise, tore-professionalise the civil service and to the get the basic socialservices, particularly health and education going, so that that kind ofculture of growth, of social net is seen to be viable both for theparents of those children and for the teachers.
GONDA: What kind of assistance do you think would be needed actually?
RAFTOPOULOS: Well I think first of all, what you see in this country isreal massive unemployment and a real breakdown of the productionstructures and at the heart of re-growing this economy therefore isredeveloping the productive structures. In industry, the mines and ofcourse on the land and therefore not just giving assistance on thenecessary humanitarian side but also beginning to see how to redevelopthe productive sectors of the economy. Out of which any futuresustainability of state expenditure will also be based. And I thinkthat aspect of the current situation is what is most urgently needednow of course in addition to the humanitarian assistance.
GONDA: Alex, what are your thoughts on that and also does the MDC inparticular have the power to drive its reform programme without losingpolitical capital, doing public relations or rather covering up anddefending the Zanu-PF rule?
MAGAISA: Well you have to appreciate that one of the risks of thispolitical arrangement is that it's always short term in the way thatthings are designed in the sense that there are elections that are tobe held at some point, we don't exactly know when and so each of theparties is going to have to do things, and manoeuvre, try andout-manoeuvre the other party – and so that is why I called theinclusive government more of a fire-fighting perhaps a restabilisingagent more than anything else. Zimbabwe definitely does need to come toa point where it can have a more permanent arrangement in terms ofgoverning the country and carrying out more stable and more long termeconomic and social policies.
In terms of development assistance, I mean as Brian has rightly said,definitely we do know that this government will fail unless there issome resources available to it. While of course it is important to getthat external assistance I would also challenge the government to tryand look inward as well. We are a poor country in terms of theresources that we need as of now but we do have immense naturalresources in the country and enough potential to try and regenerate. Wedon't want to get to this point next year still begging for moneywithout planning for it. We need to be working on things likeagriculture, try and stop these things which are causing disruption onthe farms, try and see how the parastatals like Zisco Steel, Hwange andmany others which can be productive and bring in foreign currency intothe country.
These are things that need to be attended to and I think government, inaddition to the external begging that we are doing we can also try anddig in from within and see how much we can get from the resources thatwe have.
GONDA: Right, Mr Tsvangirai famously said at his inauguration that, andI quote: It hurts that as we celebrate here today, there are some whoare in prison. I can assure you that they are not going to remain inthose dungeons any day or any week longer. Now Alex, what does thebail debacle really reveal about the MDC's power or leverage?
MAGAISA: Well I think it simply shows us that there are manyretrogressive elements within the elements of the old regime and whoare refusing obviously to accept that change has come and that thingshave got to be done differently which is why if I was to give a mark onthe rule of law I think it's no more than two per cent – which isessentially a nominal mark because the attitude has not changed, thepersonnel have not changed, the security of individuals is notguaranteed and you've got some very big people, people who are closerto Mr Tsvangirai like his security advisor, like his former personalaide Gandhi Mudzingwa, Chris Dhlamini and journalist like Manyere.These are people who continue to suffer under the old rules and we seethat there's no change in attitude and we saw this week as well withMukoko and others who were re-arrested or re-detained rather in a casewhich was quite ridiculous.
But you can see that the MDC is obviously having problems because itdoesn't have control of the military or the security structures of theState which Zanu-PF has steadfastly held on to. And also I think thereis one aspect which is the judiciary itself. There are some good peoplethere in the judiciary who have to be commended but there are alsoelements which will continue to refuse to change and I think that oneof the things that the MDC or indeed the new government needs to do isto try and carry out some judiciary reforms. I know that it wasn't abig issue during the negotiations but we certainly see that it is animportant issue in terms of getting this government moving forward.
GONDA: Brian the detainees were freed, well some of them, but they allstill face charges of trying to overthrow the regime. Is it beingunrealistic to say the charges against the political detainees shouldbe dropped in the spirit of the inclusive government?
RAFTOPOULOS: No I don't think it is being unrealistic. I think thisshould be dealt with politically. I think that these detainees shouldall be freed. I think it's a real problem, it's a real obstacle andclearly being engineered by those elements of the security that havebeen behind the violence for a long time. I think that this is clearlyan indication of the continued role of this very regressive element intrying to break this agreement and that continued efforts must be madeboth by the MDC but also by the civic, the generality of the civic tohave all the detainees released unconditionally. If Zanu-PF is talkingabout the rule of law, that rule of law has to be applied to thethuggery that has dominated Zanu's violence over the last decade. So Ithink that, for now I think good will, certainly on the part of Zanu-PFwould be shown by having these detainees released unconditionally.
GONDA: Let me read you part of an email that was sent by one of ourlisteners on this particular issue and the listener said: If theseindividuals are accused of trying to topple Mugabe, were they doing itfor their own benefit? If they were doing it for the MDC then is theMDC also being indicted? What purpose is this serving if thesepersecutions serve to undermine the mirage we thought was a unitygovernment? What can you say about this Professor?
RAFTOPOULOS: Well I think it's an indication that people understandthat there are forces at work within the State, who are trying toundermine the MDC, trying to undermine this transitional arrangementbecause their livelihoods, in a sense – they have depended on the kindof looting that the Reserve Bank governor openly admitted to recently,and the kind of access to quasi fiscal activities that have kept anelite in this country exceptionally rich. So there is a question of thekind of class needs, the class requirements of those who have benefitedfrom the turmoil that has taken place in Zimbabwe and this is showingitself of course in the kind of regression in political fortunes thatsometimes overtakes this GNU.
GONDA: Now Alex, it has been said in this discussion that the issue ofthe detainees should be dealt with politically and we understand thatJestina Mukoko and others were actually granted bail after thePrincipals intervened. Now, is it the job though of politicians tointervene in legal matters on the other hand?
MAGAISA: Well, absolutely no, that shouldn't be the case, but I thinkwe have to understand the case in the context that it's actually apolitical case. These cases we are seeing now, and I think Brianprobably has a better account of the history than I do, we have seenthese things before. I was a young boy in the 1980s when people likeDumiso Dabengwa, Lookout Masuku and many other people were kept in jailon precisely the same kind of charges and then later on they becameministers in the government. You had Ndabaningi Sithole in the late90s being accused of the same and I believe that these are accusationsthat have been put up from time to time. Even Mr Tsvangirai himself wasaccused of trying to do the same thing.
So your correspondent, the guy who wrote the email is absolutely right,it makes no sense that you can charge these people trying to topple thegovernment and yet the people who are supposed to be the beneficiariesof those activities are the same persons who are now in government. Inall normal cases, even we saw that in the transition from apartheid inSouth Africa, the issue of the release of political detainees is alwaystop of the list because you know that these are political charges,these are political offences they are being charged with and you tryand deal with that at a political level. So my view really is that thiswhole charade of saying that the cases before the courts of law andthat the law should take its course should really be taken for what itis and politicians should just deal with the issue, at a politicallevel and let this thing go.
GONDA: And what about the issue of Roy Bennett's appointment as DeputyMinister of Agriculture where Robert Mugabe is refusing to swear himin, is this not a sign that Mugabe is still caught up in the racialmode?
MAGAISA: Well in a way I think that it's pretty much obvious that it'smore than the fact that Roy Bennett is facing charges because there aremany other people in government, including indeed the Minister ofFinance and the Deputy Prime Minister who are still facing somecharges, I believe so. So the issue is not about Roy Bennett beingbefore the courts of law. I think the issue has more to do with MrBennett's race as well as the sensitive issue of him being a formercommercial farmer, now being given the position to lead the Ministry ofAgriculture.
I think if they were being honest I think they would tell us that thatis the case. I don't think that it is for Mr Mugabe to determine forthe MDC whom it wishes to get nominated if indeed the idea was that theMDC would nominate its own ministers then it was up to them to do soand this is what they have done and I think that there is nothingreasonable at all about what is happening at the moment.
GONDA: Brian – what are the implications of Mugabe refusing to swearBennett in and also do you think that Tsvangirai should perhaps relentand look for someone else for this position?
RAFTOPOULOS: No I think that for the moment Morgan is and will standhis ground. I think I agree entirely with Alex' analysis, Mugabecontinues to view the MDC and elements of it through kind of racialisedspectacles and therefore it is entirely to do with issues of race, onissues of him being a former commercial farmer, the issue that havinghim as a Deputy Minister on what is one of the central pillars ofZanu's legitimising ideologies which is the land question. But I thinkcertainly the MDC should remain firm on all its demands. And I thinkalso the MDCs must work much closer together, both formations, theyhave to take much stronger unity position around these principledissues which they have done up to now and should do so in an evenstronger way and to remember what the common enemy is, especially inthis transition period.
GONDA: What are your thoughts on the MDC's deadline? Was it a PR stuntgiven that there was an agreement to complete negotiations on Monday?
RAFTOPOULOS: When one reads Minister Biti's statement, he made veryclear not withstanding the deadline, he had no intention of leaving theGNU and I think that's the key. They certainly will consider puttingmore pressure on Zanu-PF and there's certainly one mode of doing thatis of course greater regional pressure once again on Mugabe but clearlythere are questions about what can be done internally to put morepressure and one of the things I think is lacking now is the lack ofcoherence between the civics and the MDC. Their close relationship thatexisted in the past is certainly no longer there and I thinkparticularly around the constitutional question and I think rebuildingthis relationship and the tactics with the broad civic movement isabsolutely key to putting more internal pressure on the Zanu-PF regime.
GONDA: I was actually going to ask you about the constitutional reformissue and the question is given the difference of approach, what mustthe MDC watch out for in dealing with the constitutional rewritingprocess?
RAFTOPOULOS: Well I think certainly there has to be greater effort intrying to bridge the gap between the position of some of the civicslike the NCA, ZTCU and ZINASU and the current process underway. There'sclearly a huge gulf that exists and I think that there needs to be muchmore effort put into trying to rebuild that process. The real danger isif this process continues and you get these kind of divisions withinthe broad democratic movement, it only plays into the hands of theregressive aspects of Zanu-PF and if the worse happens and you getanother NO vote, I think that can only hurt the democratic movement inthis current context.
GONDA: Alex, what are your thoughts on the constitutional reform issueand are civil society's claims valid that they want a people-drivenprocess?
MAGAISA: I think you have to acknowledge that the MDC and civil societyhave been in the trenches together trying to achieve basically ineffect the same goals, good governance which is predicated on ademocratically created constitution and so forth. What I think the MDCneed to be more aware of, is that when you get into power, you begin tosee things in a different way, you begin to approach things in adifferent way. I think that it is important that they remain true totheir ways and understand the views of their former colleagues in civilsociety.
We may use all sorts of arguments and say they were not elected and soforth but they were in the trenches together, they were partners and Idon't think that should change at any point in relation to theconstitution-making process. So if I were part of the MDC in terms ofthe cabinet and so forth, the decision makers, my view would be let'sdo things differently, let's open up to hear what Lovemore Madhuku andother people are saying and sometimes you've got to swallow your prideand humble yourself and accept that there are some things that you mayhave done wrong. You don't lose points for it; in fact you gain pointsfor it. That would be my view.
But also in relation to parliament, I think this is one body which hasbeen underused over the past 100 years. What we know is what it onlydid really was to endorse the Constitutional Amendment No 19 and theNational Security legislation. Beyond that we haven't seen anythingtangible that has come out of parliament in terms of changing some ofthe elements of the legal architecture in Zimbabwe. We know for examplethe media laws, the security laws and many other things that wecontinue to point out in our analyses that need to be changed and Ithink that parliament should be busy on those things to try and showexactly what they are doing.
GONDA: On the issue of the constitution, how is the current process by the government not people-driven?
MAGAISA: Well you have to appreciate Violet that this is a committeewhich is constituted by three political parties, Zanu-PF and the twoMDCs but there's more to Zimbabwe than those three political partiesand it's not just about politics. Constitution-making yes it's an issueof power, it's an issue of politics, but you also have to includevarious other people who may not be represented in parliament and sofor that reason it's quite short term.
But you also have to understand that the balancing act between the MDCsand Zanu-PF has always been about trying to secure the best compromisebetween them and so there's a real danger that whatever comes up in theend would be something to try and accommodate those three politicalentities and individuals within them compared to a more broad based andnational constitution. And I have to say this Violet, that in manycases these guys may actually do the right thing, this committee maycome up with the most beautiful constitution but as we say with justicesometimes you must not only be producing the right thing, but you mustbe seen to be doing the right thing in that process. I think theprocess is definitely important in coming up with that product.
GONDA: Professor Raftopoulos talked a bit about the deadline that theMDC issued this week, now the MDC has a history of setting deadlinesand not actually following through on them, should they be morecautious when they make demands?
MAGAISA: Well it's difficult to say so because I think when they setthose deadlines sometimes you want to be sitting in those shoes ofthose people; they probably know something, that's why they do whatthey do and sometimes it's very difficult for us when we are looking atit without getting the information about the inside – because what yousee, if I'm not wrong, I think Zanu-PF responded very quickly to theissue after the deadline was issued which I think you might say thatthe issuing of the deadline elicited a response from Zanu-PF andperhaps shows Zanu-PF that the MDC is serious about it.
Of course I agree the history has not been good. You set a deadline andyou don't follow it up, the danger is that you're not taken seriouslyin future. But one would hope that if they do set those deadlines theyactually indicate what they will want to do in the event that thedeadline is not met.
So for example in this case, does it mean that the MDC will pull out? Idon't think so. I think Mr Biti said they would not but would they takeit to SADC? Maybe that's the resolution that will come out of thenational council. And the question is therefore whether SADC will havethe capacity and will and desire to actually try and resolve this. Ofcourse there's a new dynamic here with Mr Zuma coming into power inSouth Africa. Who knows what approach he might take to Zimbabwe inlight of his new election. We don't know.
GONDA: Brian finally looking at the entire 100 days, how would youscore Mr Tsvangirai's performance on a score sheet of 1 to 10?
RAFTOPOULOS: (laughs) I'm not big on scores Violet! Let me just saythis, going into the agreement was a necessary step. I think there'sbeen a change of the political terrain in Zimbabwe for the better, notwithstanding all the challenges. I think both the MDC and Mr Tsvangiraiare having to learn very quickly how to deal with State power and inthat learning they're also making mistakes but I think there's also newopportunities and those opportunities have to be used and particularlycreating good strategic alliances when confronted with Zanu-PF in thisperiod is absolutely necessary.
GONDA: But for the purpose of this discussion, I would need to get somekind of (both laugh) because I'm also going to ask you about RobertMugabe and Arthur Mutambara, so just briefly, on a scale of 1 to 10,where would you put him?
RAFTOPOULOS: OK I'll put him on 5.
GONDA: And Mugabe? Robert Mugabe?
RAFTOPOULOS: Mugabe? Mugabe – I'll put him on 2. He's still got a long way to go.
GONDA: And Arthur Mutambara?
RAFTOPOULOS: Yah also about between 4 and 5.
GONDA: OK. And Alex?
MAGAISA: Yah I think it's very difficult to score them as individualsin the sense that none of them is completely in power so you've got tomeasure them in accordance with the fact that they don't have power todo everything that they would do. For example, measuring Obama becauseObama is in power in the US, he can put a measure. But what I would do,for Mr Tsvangirai I think as an individual, his genuine desire, willand commitment to get things running in Zimbabwe, I would give him thesame score as Brian I think it's about 5 – because he still doesn'thave sufficient power to do the things that he wants to do but he hasshown that he is willing so 5 to 6 for me on that one.
And for Mr Mugabe, I think it would simply be a nominal 2 again out ofrespect more than anything else that he is there because clearlynothing seems to have changed except at long last he did accept that hecould not continue on his own without Mr Tsvangirai and Mr Mutambara.
As for Mr Mutambara I think again, he seems to have come in togovernment I think you need to reduce some of the rhetoric, anti-west -for example the Obama comments were not helpful. But I think by andlarge I've seen some of the things that he has done with the farmswhere Tsvangirai appointed him to go on a fact-finding mission and someof the interviews have been very fascinating and very thorough fromwhat I have seen, although of course you can see that the MDC doesn'thave power because they can't do anything about those people. I wouldgive him same marks, 5 to 6 as well.
GONDA: Dr Alex Magaisa and Professor Brian Raftopoulos thank you very much for participating on the programme Hot Seat.
MAGAISA: It's a pleasure Violet.
RAFTOPOULOS: Thank you very much.
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