HARARE - Zimbabwe is likely to miss a 2011 deadline to hold fresh elections with the countrys main political rivals haggling over power-sharing, analysts said, adding that despite regional pressure for a breakthrough, slow progress on key democratic reforms would stifle a free and fair vote.
President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai have had little success in ending a stalemate on outstanding issues of September 2008 political deal, including the appointment of provincial governors, the review of posts of central bank governor and attorney general and sanctions.
South African President Jacob Zuma has sought to inject a sense of urgency in the negotiations between Zanu (PF) and the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) in a bid to end the impasse while the Southern African Development Community (SADC) is growing weary over Zimbabwes crisis.
“The Zimbabweans have set themselves a deadline of 2011 (for a vote). On our side, that is a reasonable deadline,” Vincent Magwenya said, Zumas spokesman said recently. “That’s why President Zuma is quite keen to see them implementing those agreements. They now need to move quickly.” Analysts said the self imposed deadline already faced hurdles as the ingredients for free elections were still to be put in place.
The political analysts pointed to the on-going constitutional reform process, which is well behind its schedule mainly because of political differences between Zanu (PF) and MDC, which are all trying to influence the outcome of the process.
Under the original time-table, countrywide consultations over the new constitution should ended in November last year but have yet to start, casting doubt on whether the process would even end before the expected elections in 2011.
Throwing spanners
I have no doubt in my mind that this so called deadline would not be met and the MDC will come to realise that Zanu (PF) will throw spanners in the works because it does not want to hold elections anytime soon, John Makumbe, a University of Zimbabwe political commentator said. Zanu (PF) is deeply divided over the succession of Mugabe, who turns 86 next month and in the sunset of a long political career, and talk of an election will only bring the succession issue to the fore.
The political analysts said Zanu (PF)s strategy was to simply stall on reforms and make it difficult for the holding of free and fair elections or frustrate the MDC into quitting the unity government, with the hope of running the full five-year term. Forget about Mugabes noise about early elections, that is propaganda because he knows Zanu (PF) is not ready and would lose heavily, Makumbe said.
Some of the key conditions for a fair ballot include reforming the police and army, machinery that Mugabe has effectively used in the past to check his opponents. Last month Mugabe told supporters at a Zanu (PF) congress that there would be no reforms o the military, which is headed by war veterans and Mugabe loyalists who have all but sworn never to recognise Tsvangirai as Zimbabwes president.
Pillars of violence
The MDC accused the military of coordinating a violent campaign against the opposition in June 2008 to ensure the veteran leaders grip on power continued after a first round defeat by Tsvangirai, who has called for urgent security reforms to depoliticise the military. Political commentators said the pillars of violence, which Mugabe has relied on in the past have remained firmly in place.
The former ruling party has used war veterans of the 1970s liberation war and youth militia in the past decade to terrorise opposition members, including killing, accusing them of being puppets of former colonial master Britain. When you look at it really, the structures of violence that have delivered electoral victory for Zanu (PF) have not been neutralised but have rather been shelved for use in future so you can not say that we are on track for a free and fair election, Eldred Masunungure, a leading political analyst said.
The national healing process has not moved at the speed that was originally envisaged and so you will have a situation where the culture of violence and fear will for a long time remain pervasive and does not aid free elections, said Masunungure.
SADC pressure
Pressure from SADC and especially South Africa is yet to yield a conclusion of outstanding political issues and Pretoria is growing impatient with the Zimbabwe crisis ahead of the soccer World Cup that will be held for the first time in Africa in June. Zuma has also appealed on the MDC to be flexible on the issue of central bank governor Gideon Gono and attorney general Johannes Tomana whom they want fired because their appointments flouted provisions of the unity deal.
The South African leader also wants issues that have been agreed to be implemented immediately, which is at odds with Zanu (PF) which says implementation should be done when all outstanding issues have been addressed.
Observers have read this as a delaying tactic by Mugabe, whom they say is desperate to keep power to himself. “For the sake of the people of Zimbabwe who have suffered a great deal, as well as for the sake of stability in the region, Zimbabwe cannot be in a permanent state of crisis,” Magwenya said, echoing the mood in South Africas government. “The region cannot be consumed by one country for such a long time.”
But Masunungure said the region seemed to lack the resolve to pressure Zimbabwes squabbling parties to end the crisis. He said: SADC is well positioned to break this impasse and speed up the democratisation pace but they seem incapable and obviously the deadline for elections is very much in doubt.
Post published in: Opinions