GNU to rumble on in 2010: think-tank

London-based think-tank Africa Confidential said the unlikely triumvirate in Harare would somehow stick together this year for fear of something worse. The uneasy coalition government will rumble on into 2010, making painful but discernible progress on economic reform. It is in none of the three main parties interest to ditch the agreement, according to

Africa Confidential.

President Robert Mugabe, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara told a joint press conference on 23 December that they still had minor differences but that their power-sharing government was not going to collapse. The coalition has been rocked by a dispute over appointments of key officials and implementation of political and economic reforms.

In October, Tsvangirais MDC-T party withdrew from cabinet meetings, accusing Mugabes Zanu (PF) of being an unreliable partner. It rejoined after mediation by the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

The big unresolved issues are the appointment of provincial governors, the role of two Mugabe-allies Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor Gideon Gono and Attorney General Johannes Tomana and the veteran leaders refusal to swear in the MDC-T treasurer general Roy Bennett as deputy agriculture minister because he faces criminal charges.

There are currently ten provincial governors, all of them Zanu (PF) but a power-sharing formula agreed by the three parties would give MDC-T five of the positions while Zanu (PF) and MDC-M led by Mutambara would get four and one, respectively.

Mugabe has delayed swearing-in the provincial governors despite agreeing to the allocation formula with his coalition partners more than eight months ago. The think-tank said South Africa, which has been mediating in Zimbabwean crisis on behalf of SADC, would see to it that Harares feuding parties remain in the coalition regime.

Continued political bickering in Harare could jeopardise Pretorias chances of hosting a successful FIFA World Cup in June this year. South Africa is mediating partly because it wants outstanding issues resolved before June, when it hopes that the football World Cup will boost its own, and Africas, international image, observed the think-tank.

Africa Confidential said besides the inter-party dispute, Zimbabwes three main political parties would also face more formidable challenges in terms of managing delicate and simmering internal politics. Mugabe, 86 next month, has the unenviable to keeping together a faction-ridden party struggling to regain its former glory as a liberation movement.

The veteran leader is still symbolically in control of his party and lambasted it in December for forming squabbling factions. Most reflect rival interests in choosing his successor.

Mugabe is the partys worst candidate except for all the others, one Zanu (PF) dissident told Africa Confidential. The main rivalry is still between Vice President Joice Mujuru and her husband Solomon Mujuru and Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa. John Nkomo and Simon Khaya Moyo are in the Presidium for window-dressing to preserve the 1987 unity accord between ZANU and the mainly Ndebele PF ZAPU. Moyo has hopes because he is still young but he cannot rise beyond Vice President as things stand now.

Tsvangirai had a good 2009, reasserting control of the main MDC. Tensions have abated with deputy leader Thokozani Khupe, secretary general and Finance Minister Tendai Biti and some malcontents from Matabeleland. The think-tank said the Matabeleland resistance to Tsvangirais leadership has eased off since last year. Khupe has lost much of her former popularity; National Chairman and Speaker Lovemore Moyo has distanced himself from her, said Africa Confidential.

Gorden Moyo, another former dissident much beloved of Western diplomats, now backs Tsvangirai. Mutambara has just ten of the 210 seats in Parliament but can swing

votes because Tsvangirai and Mugabe control 100 seats each, since Mugabes former spin-doctor Jonathan Moyo rejoined Zanu (PF).