JULIUS Malema Malemas importance has been exaggerated yet again in the wake of his disciplinary hearing, which parts of the media hailed as yet another triumph for the African National Congress (ANC) Youth League president: Malema Trumps Zuma, one billboard proclaimed.
Yet a cursory understanding of current ANC politics would show just how out of touch that judgment is.
Much seems to be made of the fact that Malema was not suspended or thrown out of the ANC. But that was never going to happen. The reason is not as much reportage would have us believe that he represents millions of alienated youth. It is, rather, that he is a pawn in an important contest for the soul of the ANC.
Many divisions within the ANC have become more visible since Polokwane. But the most important of these is the clash between an antidemocratic form of politics and its opponents. Those who practise this politics are hostile to the ANCs left. But that is where their appeal to business hopefully ends.
A key tactic of this group is the use of strident nationalist rhetoric to justify a patronage politics that hopes to use money to gain position and position to gain more money. It is antidemocratic because patronage politics is a vehicle for elites seeking to advance their own interests and is indifferent or hostile to the needs of most citizens.
In Mpumalanga , a variant of this politics has descended into thuggery, which could yet destroy politics in the province: several councillors who seem to stand between some politicians and the tenders they seek have been murdered and politicians who oppose misuse of public trust fear for their lives. This use of violence may be unusual: but even when it is peaceful, patronage politics threatens to turn the ANC in particular, and politics in general, into an alliance of the acquisitive, a guild of the greedy.
Malema is very much a part of this politics. He clearly has the support of some senior ANC figures who practise it and much of what he says is presumably what they want him to say. This makes him difficult to dislodge not because he has a great following among the wretched and the poor but because he is of great use to some of the well-heeled and well- connected. He could not have been thrown out of the ANC because that would signal that his patrons were so weak that they could allow him to be thrown to the wolves. They are powerful enough to prevent this.
Given this, the sentence that Malema received after entering into a plea bargain was deeply humiliating.
The man who, not long ago, was reportedly invincible was told to go back to school to learn politics and manage his anger. He was forced to apologise and was warned that, if he misbehaved again, he would be suspended. He was treated not like an unstoppable political force but like a schoolboy. It is hard to imagine him receiving rougher treatment in the circumstances and the punishment is a defeat, not a triumph.
It is also the ANCs first serious attempt since Polokwane to curb the unrestrained power battles which threaten in time to tear it apart. And so it could yet prove to be the first turning point in an attempt to ensure that the politics of personal advancement does not destroy the ruling party.
But, since Malema is purely a creature of those who support his lifestyle, the really important issue here is not his future but what the judgment says about the battle for the ANC. On the surface, the faction he serves has suffered a setback. But it is not clear yet whether they backed Malema and lost in which case they are surely in retreat or whether they decided that he is dispensable and that they would be better able to strengthen their hold on the ANC if he was cut down to size.
The test will be the extent to which the ANC is now able to roll back patronage politics. Enacting and enforcing rules that allow political competition but ensure that contests are won by the candidate with the most support, not the most money and muscle, will be crucial. So will the creation of clear limits on moneys influence on politics. If the patronage politicians are losing, both measures should be adopted by the ANC national general council this year.
Whatever the outcome, Malema will be far less important to it than much coverage suggests. He has suffered a setback but the type of politics he represents is far from dead. And it remains possible that he will fade from the scene but that patronage politics will further entrench itself.
The ANCs immediate future and that of the country will depend not on what happens to Malema but on whether the ruling party can rein in those who have used him.
– Friedman is director of the Centre for the Study of Democracy.
http://www.businessday.co.za/articles/Content.aspx?id=109337
Post published in: News