Tsvangirai skating on thin ice: analsysts

The analysts questioned Tsvangirais sense of judgment after the Premier made a number of pronouncements over the past week that have left even the staunchest of his supporters questioning the ability of the MDC-T leader to wade through Zimbabwes booby-trapped political landscape without compromising the struggle for democracy.

The Prime Minister shocked many when he announced that he had reached a gentlemans agreement with long-time rival President Robert Mugabe under which they agreed to hold elections next year and more interestingly they concurred that the losing presidential candidate would not contest the outcome.

In another surprise move, the MDC-T leader hinted of a possible future pact guaranteeing security chiefs immunity from prosecution for political crimes committed in the past as a way to secure their support for a future non-Mugabe-led government.

There are mechanisms to make sure that they are assured of the future. We are (not) oblivious to the fact that armed forces are a pillar of the state and have to be given assurance about the future, the Premier told a summit on the future of Zimbabwe which was organised by the London-based magazine, The Economist.

Talk of a possible amnesty for army generals who masterminded bloody clashes ahead of Zimbabwes presidential run-off in 2008 drew a lot of criticism from ordinary Zimbabweans who said the service chiefs and other members of Mugabes Zanu (PF) must be made to face justice for their actions. At the end of the day, the decision on any amnesty for violence

perpetrators is not something that can be made by Tsvangirai, Mugabe and (Deputy Prime Minister Arthur) Mutambara over a cup of tea in some office somewhere. Tsvangirai, for instance, will have to first seek the mandate of (MDC-T) party members before agreeing to any such deal, said Harare resident Tichafa Zigora who said he lost relatives during ahead of the June 2008 run-off.

Zigora warned that Tsvangirai would betray the struggle for democracy if he unilaterally agrees to an amnesty without consulting ordinary MDC-T supporters who bore the brunt of Zanu (PF)s violence campaign. There are, in fact, no guarantees that Mugabe and his service chiefs will indeed withdraw from political activities once they are granted

the amnesty, added Sheila Kufa, a Harare vegetable vendor.

The same sentiments were echoed by respected political analyst John Makumbe who said Tsvangirais biggest challenge would be how to ensure the amnesty process is fool-proof. It is possible to grant the service chiefs amnesty but the process will not be fool-proof because even if they are granted amnesty, the generals will still be vulnerable to civil suits from those affected by the political violence, Makumbe said. The threat of civil suits would force the generals to cling to power to avoid prosecution.

The security chiefs are Mugabes staunchest allies and are credited with keeping the President in power after waging a ruthless campaign of violence in 2008 to force then opposition leader Tsvangirai to withdraw from a second round presidential poll that analysts had strongly tipped the former trade unionist to win. Tsvangirai had beaten Mugabe in the first round ballot but failed to achieve outright victory to avoid the second round run-off poll.

The security chiefs have previously vowed to never salute a president who did not take part in Zimbabwes 1970s liberation struggle, in what was seen as a clear warning they would topple any government led by Tsvangirai who did not take part in the independence war.