Mugabe – standing alone

This was a clear case of desperation for new elections before anything untoward happens to him before the plebiscite. Mugabe is fully aware that should God decide to change his current physiological and biological status Zanu (PF) would struggle to nominate a candidate who can meaningfully contest against Morgan Tsvangirai of the MDC-T in a presidential election. The best that Bob can hope for is to be the Zanu (PF) presidential candidate himself, and by hook or by crook, win the election, then hand over power to a successor of his choice a few weeks after the contest. He knows that, by and large, the security forces would ensure that lose or win the elections, he would still be declared the winner.

But the man is increasingly standing alone these days – because the majority of his colleagues in Zanu (PF), particularly those in Parliament, are desperately frightened of elections. They know very well that their chances of winning against the MDC-T candidates at the polls are next to nil.

It is generally rumoured that in the 2008 elections, the former liberation party won only 37 out of the 210 seats of the House of Assembly. The rest of the 99 seats had to be massaged in by that partys rigging machine. This is unlikely to happen under a new and tighter constitution and revised Electoral Act.

But Mugabe is prepared to sacrifice these poor souls on the altar of expediency for himself as the old man is desperate to rest, whether in peace or in pieces. He is very tired, unwell and anxious about developments among some of his closest fellow dictators to the north of the continent. I guess he is having serious nightmares these days. What if?

What Mugabe needs to be reminded of is that if he pulls Zanu (PF) out of the GNU, he automatically loses his legitimacy as president of this country. Mugabe has no presidential legitimacy outside of the GNU. Further, if he calls for elections without Morgan Tsvangirais agreement, and if the MDC-T decides to boycott such elections, then it becomes a futile exercise which has the net effect of returning Zimbabwe to the 2008 disasters in their totality. No sane Zimbabwean would like to re-live that horror.

It is quite possible to hold farcical elections between Zanu (PF) and some of the little NDA, NDE, NDUs that usually come out of the woodwork at polling times, but there is no country in the world that is likely to recognize the results of such sham elections. Without the full and willing participation of the MDC-T in an election in this country, holding any such plebiscite is a sheer waste of time. Both Mugabe and Zanu (PF) are fully aware of this hard-to swallow reality.

So, what is the best way forward for this nation given the foregoing? It is possible that by some stroke of luck, Zuma might be able to persuade Mugabe to accept the reality of the state of the nation – that it is futile to try and hold elections before Zimbabwe has a new and democratic constitution.

Further, that the perpetration of political violence by Mugabes own party is one of the major hindrances to the holding of indisputable elections in this country. But perhaps Mugabe will be assisted by the total collapse of the fragmented and fragmenting MDC-M (or is it N?), which might unceremoniously pull out of the GNU.