OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: A letter from the diaspora

It would hardly be in the interest of Zimbabwes propaganda media to show the near collapse of another dictatorial regime and in Africa too but urban Zimbabweans with their satellite dishes will I suspect be fully in the picture; whether they make the connection with their own situation is quite another matter.

The BBC has made much of the fact that this revolt is in the Arab world as if Egypt is not also on the African continent. The demonstrators themselves have pointed out that this is not an Islamist revolt; it was not the Moslem Brotherhood who initiated or led the uprising, it was ordinary Egyptian citizens tired of thirty years of Mubaraks dictatorial rule.

By Thursday, having announced on national television that he would stand down but not until September when the next elections are due, Mubarak unleashed his thugs: paid supporters and released prisoners onto the streets and the bloody battle for control of Cairos central Tahrir Square began in earnest. Mubarak is quoted as remarking that he has a Ph.D in obstinacy and I was reminded of Robert Mugabes comment that he had degrees in violence. Wherever they are in the world, dictators operate in the same way, through physical violence against their own people. By releasing his supporters onto the streets, Mubarak has succeeded in turning Egyptians against each other, another tactic that Zimbabweans will recognise from their own dictators behaviour. No one can predict how the situation in Egypt will be resolved. The problem is complicated by Mubaraks alliance with Israel which is also supported by massive aid from the US. Earlier predictions that the whole Middle East might go up in flames might still become a dangerous reality.

While all of this may seem very far removed from the situation in Zimbabwe, it should be remembered that in both situations the core of the matter is the presence of a long-time dictator who no longer has the support of the people. In Zimbabwe, the ongoing violence against opposition supporters in Mbare and the continuing land seizures with white farmers locked out of their own homes tell us very clearly that Zanu PF is in election mode. The news this week of some 70.000 youths being trained at Inkomo army barracks outside Harare, specifically to fight the MDC in forthcoming elections further supports that view. Mugabes declaration that he is entitled under the constitution to hold elections any time he chooses shows his contempt for democracy and the GPA which he signed two years ago. Unfortunately, there appears to be no one to exert pressure on him as the US has on Mubarak; certainly not the South Africans or the Brits who are content to believe the lie that all is now well in Zimbabwe with its government of national unity.

Today, Friday is being called the Day of Departure by the demonstrators in Tahrir Square. Mubarak has apparently told Egyptian radio that he is fed up but fears that if he goes Egypt will disintegrate and chaos will ensue. Thats a very familiar line from dictators: the argument that only they have brought stability and order to their countries and without them the whole structure will fall apart. Mugabe makes exactly the same point but after three decades in power, his own day of departure might not be so far off. Whether the demonstrators in Egypt will succeed in ousting Mubarak is not clear but what is clear is that they have proved to the undemocratic leaders of the world that people power cannot be ignored, the support of the masses can no longer be taken for granted. The message for oppressed people all over the world is that it is possible to overcome fear in pursuit of a greater goal than personal safety. Will Zimbabweans hear the message and will they understand its relevance for them?

Yours in the (continuing) struggle PH. aka Pauline Henson author of Samis Story, an account of Murambatsvina seen through the eyes of one young boy, available on Lulu.com