Succession: the burning question

But the question of succession must surely be weighing on his mind, even as it tantalizes Zimbabwean watchers. And for the first time, he spoke about it. “I have said 87 is eight plus seven because I want to remain with you,” Mugabe told guests at his Saturday party.

“I want to be with you. My body can get spent but I wish that my mind will always remain with you. We must continue to organise ourselves,” he said.

At the Zanu (PF) conference in December, the competition to succeed Mugabe was beamed live for all to see. One choir sang a highly controversial song, believed to be an attempt to prop up General Constantine Chiwenga, who has also joined the succession race.

The choir sang: “Nyika ino inotongwa naGushungo, zvikaramba ichatongwa nemasoja, Tsvangirai ari pasi paGushungo.” (This country will be ruled by Mugabe, if not it will be ruled by the military. Tsvangirai is under Mugabe.) The group was intercepted and thrown off the podium.

During the presentation of presents to the President, Defence Minister Emerson Mnangagwa described himself as “jindaguru renyu” or the heir apparent. Oppah Muchinguri and Abigail Damasane, believed to be members of the Mujuru faction also made their point after presenting their presents to the President. They sang a rendition of “Around the corner Jesus is coming”. Their version, believed to be an attempt to prop up Joice Mujuru, went: “Around the corner, women are coming.”

Because Mugabe leads a regime long-cemented by vested interests, the process of succession should be relatively painless, though regime collapse in an impoverished nation maintained by a brutal hierarchy is possible.

Too many concessions to the GNU could undermine the current regime. Still, Mugabe assumes – and so do most observers – that he will stay in power through his tried and tested use of violence. The main issue therefore is not if the regime will survive, but which of the three contenders in the Zanu (PF) succession matrix is standing next in line. One thing that is certain is that whoever succeeds Mugabe will have to win the support of the powerful military.

The 40,000-strong military is the only institution that can challenge the regime. Indeed, the power and profile of top military leaders has increased substantially under Mugabe, who relies on the armed forces. Senior commanders now attend virtually all of Mugabe’s public appearances, reinforcing the image of a military state.