Will popular rebellions spread south of the Sahara?

Many an African dictator is trembling in his boots, following popular uprisings that swept long-time rulers out of power in Tunisia and Egypt. But will the domino effect of these popular uprisings also sweep dictators out of power further south?

Zimbabwe, Swaziland, Lesotho and other Sub-Saharan African countries are also ruled by long-time autocrats and their people are suffering as hard if not harder than those in Tunisia and Egypt.

In Zimbabwe, Robert Mugabe has been in power since 1980. In Cameroon Paul Biya has been in the saddle for 29 years. Yoweri Museveni has presided Uganda since 1986. Jose dos Santos has been in power since 1979, and is preparing to stand for another term while, incredibly, grooming one of his children to take over. The list goes on.

There are some parallels, but also some clear differences, between societies in the north, and those South of the Sahara. The first parallel is that both the Maghreb countries and those South of the Sahara have allowed in the words of South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, inequality to grow, allow(ed) joblessness to accelerate (and is) about state(s) that doesnt actually perform (and is) about a minority that accumulates things for itself.

ECONOMIC CRISIS

All African countries are about to feel the delayed effect of the global financial crisis, just as Tunisia and Egypt had. Typically in countries, like Swaziland, Lesotho or Cameroon, leaders pride themselves on the fact that they have supposedly not been so harshly affected by the recent global financial crisis. However, they are mistaken the true effects are yet to be felt.

But many of those countries depend heavily on Western aid. With the austerity in most of the major donor countries, this aid may either dry up, or trickle into a drip. Even the budgets of international organisations and NGOs heavily active in development projects in these countries have been cut or will be reduced. In some African countries more than 50 per cent of the national budget comes from foreign aid.

Combined with a perceptible rise in the prices of basic food and living costs in most African countries, ordinary African people are having it tough. Desperation is easily turned into the political outrage. There is a deep gulf between the relatively small ruling elite, living a bling and elite lifestyle, and a majority of the poor a potent grievance, a festering sore if one happens to be the unfortunate poor individual.

YOUTH & UNEMPLOYMENT

The demography of all African countries has changed dramatically since independence. Young people now make up most of their populations, and the youth were at the vanguard of the uprisings. Globalisation and new technological advances, such as the internet, social media, such as twitter, have meant that the youth can see how better-off their peers in Western countries live, compared to them.

In most African countries most of the media is in state hands, so ruling parties can ensure news about official corruption, mismanagement or wrongdoing is kept out of the public domain.

The news blackout means that leaders and political movements can stay in power for longer without many of their supporters in the far-flung rural areas knowing the extent to which these leaders abuse their powers. This is why the likes of Zimbabwes Robert Mugabe can get away with blaming his governments own bad governance on the work of Western imperialists, former colonial powers, minorities or opposition groups supposedly linked to them.

Not surprisingly, people power, the phenomenon where African citizens finally kick out bad governments that have ruled for far too long, often always coincides with the growth of private independent media that can provide citizens (especially ordinary members of these parties) with the real story and a growing civil and opposition movement, that can offer an alternative.

NEW TECHNOLOGIES

Although the internet is not as widespread in many African countries south of the Sahara compared to Egypt or Tunisia, the power of the worldwide web is still potent. In Zimbabwes last elections, people used mobile phones to text witnessed attempts at vote rigging by Zanu (PF) strongmen at voting stations in remote areas. This meant that opposition groups, international observers and independent media could be informed more quickly than during previous elections.

One big difference between Egypt and Tunisia compared to other African countries south of the Sahara, is that there are more incidents of staged elections in the latter which on regular occasions give the masses an outlet for their frustrations. The recent presidential and parliamentary elections held in Uganda springs to mind.

Furthermore, the opposition parties in these countries are so irrelevant little alternative policies, and generally clones of the ruling parties and each other (the opposition political parties in Nigeria are a good example); they are more of a stumbling bloc to genuine democracy than anything else.

Post published in: Opinions

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