HARARE - The international community had made contingency plans for a possible civil war in Zimbabwe in 2008 as parties haggled over a power-sharing formula following disputed presidential polls. A leaked diplomatic cable dispatched on November 7, 2008 detailed how 16 powerful Western countries and multilateral agencies resolved during a meeting in Canada in October 2008 to start planning for worst case scenarios in the event of a continued stalemate between Zanu (PF) and the former opposition MDC-T party after they signed the Global Political Agreement that was supposed to pave way for a coalition government.
The stalemate was blamed on Mugabes decision to appoint losing candidates from his Zanu (PF) to provincial governor posts in October 2008, sparking a dispute with the MDC-T which contested the appointments as violating a power-sharing agreement signed the previous month. The MDC-T refused for more than four months to join a unity government with Zanu (PF) until the issue of the unilateral appointment of provincial governors and the allocation of cabinet portfolios was addressed.
Former British ambassador to Zimbabwe, Andrew Pocock, urged other members of the Fishmongers Group to begin planning for worst case scenarios to manage the consequences of failing to resolve the dispute triggered by President Robert Mugabes controversial June 2008 re-election which Morgan Tsvangirai boycotted in protest at massive political violence that saw thousands of his partys members beaten, tortured and raped by Zanu (PF) thugs.
Those consequences include: final middle class flight; final infrastructure collapse; potential internal conflict or civil war;
and large increases in displaced persons, both internally and regionally, said the cable. More than 200 mostly MDC-T supporters were allegedly killed by Zanu (PF) militias and the security forces during the ill-fated run-off which was called after Tsvangirai had defeated Mugabe in the first round polls held in March 2008.
Thousands more were internally displaced during the skirmishes that followed the disputed polls, triggering a humanitarian crisis as people fled the rural areas for the safety of towns and cities. There were also fears of a mass exodus of the remaining skilled personnel into the region or abroad if the impasse continued. The Ottawa meeting was attended by Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States as well as representatives of the African Development Bank, European Commission, United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank.
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