The Zimbabwe crisis could once again be bumped off the agenda of upcoming talks by leaders in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), apparently because South Africas President Jacob Zuma might not attend.
The SADC Summit is set to get underway in Namibia on Friday, but there has been no confirmation that Zimbabwe will be on the agenda of talks. Dewa Mavhinga from the Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition told SW Radio Africa that President Zuma, the regional mediator in the Zimbabwe crisis, might not be available because of commitments regarding municipal elections in South Africa.
If Zuma is not available then the matter of Zimbabwe might be postponed, Mavhinga said, explaining; There is a proposal on the table that the matter will be addressed in Johannesburg on the 10th or 11th June. It will not be the first time that SADC has deferred dealing with the Zimbabwe issue and Robert Mugabe. But a delay now will come as a serious blow for everyone who has been pushing for the region to take a stand. SW Radio Africa understands that SADC is jumping at the chance to delay the Zim meeting again, because it simply does not know what to do.
SADC has been cautiously praised recently after appearing to change its usually complacent tune towards Zimbabwe. A SADC Troika meeting in Zambia had harsh words for the ongoing political stalemate, caused by ZANU PFs refusal to honour the Global Political Agreement (GPA). That Troika meeting ended with what analysts said was, for SADC, a strongly worded communiqu that called for an immediate end to violence and intimidation and also resolved to create an election road map to guarantee a fair and free vote.
Mugabe left that meeting visibly angry, and his party has been lashing out at SADC ever since. A ZANU PF politburo meeting last week moved to stall all progress in creating the draft election roadmap, insisting elections will be held this year. Observers have said ZANU PFs behaviour is only isolating the party further within the region, but there are still concerns that long time allies of Mugabes will continue to support him in the future.
Mugabe has since embarked on a regional offensive, deploying envoys to try and drum up support for his intention to hold elections this year. Analysts have said that, if successful, this could divide an already fragile SADC, with the likes of Angolas Jos Eduardo dos Santos, Malawis Bingu Wa Mutharika, Joseph Kabila of the DRC, Namibias Hifikepunye Pohamba and Swazilands King Mswati III, likely to fight in Mugabes corner.
The Crisis Coalitions Mavhinga said that there is still reason to hope that SADC will do the right thing, insisting that the pressure on the region must not wane. We are pushing SADC to put on public record its minimum conditions for Zimbabwe, regarding the environment that must be created for a free and fair election, regarding constitutional reform, regarding the serious issues of security sector reform, Mavhinga said. He added: Even if the matter is postponed, they must put this on record, and indicate to the international community that they are in charge of the situation.
Meanwhile, its understood that SADC will be happy to delay the meeting, while it tries to decide how to progress with the sticky issue of the SADC Tribunal. The summit is meant to study a review of the court, which was effectively suspended last year over Zimbabwes refusal to honour its ruling on the land grab campaign. The Tribunal ruled in 2008 that the brutal land invasions were unlawful and ordered the then ZANU PF government to protect farmers. But Robert Mugabe and his party have repeatedly snubbed the court, despite being a signatory to the SADC Treaty.
Last year a SADC summit decided to review the role and functions of the court, rather than be forced into taking action against the Zim government for its contempt. That review has since been concluded, and has upheld the courts decision.
But a recent SADC Council of Ministers meeting has come to a different conclusion, insisting that the Court was not properly constituted and does not have the jurisdiction to rule on events in Zimbabwe.
The SADC summit now needs to make a decision on the future of the court, one way or another. Observers have said it is unlikely that the regional bloc will take Mugabe to task over land seizures, and there is great concern about what this will mean for the future of the rule of law in the entire region.
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