A Way Forward for Zimbabwe

3. History of the Crisis

4. Crisis Group Analysis

5. News and Other Reporting

6. Important Documents and Websites

1. The Current Situation
Overview

The situation in Zimbabwe is deteriorating again under a new wave of political violence organised by Robert Mugabes ZANU-PF party that threatens to derail the Global Political Agreement (GPA). Mugabes calls for early elections have raised fears about a return to 2008s violence, and the country faces the prospect of another illegitimate vote unless credible, enforceable reforms can first be implemented. Without stronger international pressure on ZANU-PF, the tenuous current coalition may collapse, triggering further violence and grave consequences for southern Africa.

The GPA was signed by the three political parties (ZANU-PF, and the two wings of the former opposition, MDC-T and MDC-M) in September 2008, after Mugabe was re-elected in an uncontested run-off following violence that caused Tsvangirai (who led the first round) to withdraw. It was intended to provide a foundation for response to the multiple political and economic crises, but it has become a battleground for control of the countrys future. As in 2008, ZANU-PFs ability, in partnership with the unreformed security sector leadership (the securocrats), to thwart a democratic transfer of power remains intact. The state media is still grotesquely unbalanced, and the criminal justice system continues to be used as a weapon against ZANU-PF opponents, in particular the MDC-T.

The centrepiece of GPA reforms is a parliament-led constitution-making process under the direction of the Constitution Parliamentary Affairs (Select) Committee (COPAC). That body launched an outreach program in the latter half of 2010, but several civil society organisations and the MDC-T criticise it for falling far short of being inclusive and open and accuse ZANU-PF of having captured and manipulated the process. Both MDC parties argue that COPAC must finish its work before elections are held, but ZANU-PF says elections can proceed with or without a new constitution and links its cooperation on democratic reforms to removal of targeted international sanctions, over which the parties have no control.

The lack of political progress has been coupled with an alarming upsurge in political violence organised by ZANU-PF. The March 2008 elections were followed by an unprecedented campaign of violence targeting MDC-T, including at least 300 politically motivated murders, that eventually forced the party to withdraw from the June second-round vote. Violence has risen again following the early 2011 visit of the SADC facilitators, including arrest of MDC-T supporters and attacks on party and civil society figures. There are also reports of youth militia deployments across the country ahead of the constitutional referendum, including induction of many of these young people into the police and army through ZANU-PFs control of security force recruitment and the civil service. This correlates with allegations about deployment of army officers into rural areas to coordinate intimidation, though these are vehemently denied by Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa.

The facilitation team recognises that it needs a constant presence in Zimbabwe. Its roadmap should propose an audit of what has and has not been done, what the parties can and cannot achieve. If further power-sharing is inevitable, a pragmatic assessment of the current arrangements failure is needed. The guarantors and facilitation team have relied on the Joint Monitoring and Implementation Committee (JOMIC), set up by the GPA four members from each of the three signatory parties for evaluations, but it has not fulfilled its mandate, due to inadequate monitoring capacity, no enforcement leverage and problems navigating the distorted balance of power within government. In recognition of its poor performance, the SADC troika recommended strengthening the facilitation teams monitoring and reporting capacity, so it could work closer with the JOMIC. The annual progress review the Periodic Review Mechanism should provide in consultation with the guarantors has not been done, though the party leaders recently agreed to correct this. The guarantors must ensure a comprehensive review. (Download)

Concise monthly summaries of the situation in Zimbabwe are available in Crisis Group’s monthly bulletin, CrisisWatch.