But only the worst kind of political imbecile would ever imagine the military generals voluntarily switching allegiance from Mugabe to a victorious Tsvangirai.
This leaves places an unenviable and truly difficult task on the hands of Tsvangirai as frontrunner to win the next presidential election but with no guarantee that the military establishment will allow him to assume power.
Regrettably the events of the past two weeks when Tsvangirai and his MDC party have engaged in a rather dangerous public slanging match with the military sector as represented by Brigadier General Douglass Nyikayaramba do not seem to suggest that the Prime Minister and his advisors fully realise the magnitude of the task at hand.
For the record, it is as unacceptable as it is illegal for Nyikayaramba and the other military commanders – some would say politicians in uniform – to seek to prescribe who should rule Zimbabwe regardless of the outcome of elections.
But surely Tsvangirai and his advisors do not need to be told that the biggest obstacle to democratic transition in Zimbabwe is not Mugabe or the likes of Dydimus Mutes, John Nkomo, Emmerson Mnangagwa or Sydney Sekeramayi. The civilian wing of Zanu (PF) is not the problem.
It is the armed wing of Mugabe’s party masquerading as the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF) that was always the real barrier to democracy. One needs look no further than Gukurahundi, Murambatsvina and the political violence of the last decade to know why the soldiers hate change.
In opposing change the generals are motivated by one thing and one thing alone – the fear that change will mean accountability for all the crimes that they have committed against Zimbabweans. And this where the Prime Minister needs to and must show leadership.
He certainly cannot do this by publicly engaging in an increasingly delinquent name-calling match with the generals as we have seen him doing in recent days.
Of course, we do understand Tsvangirai’s frustrations at the fact that even after trying to warm up to the generals under the auspices of the unity government the men in uniform remain intransigent and unwilling to return the favour.
But common sense dictates that the huge obstacle that the generals present in the way of change cannot be wished or scolded away. It can only be overcome through careful, sensitive and painful negotiations done in secret and not at public rallies or international fora.
The burden of making such negotiations a success largely lies not on the likes of Nyikayaramba or even the SADC and its point man on Zimbabwe, President Jacob Zuma of South Africa. It lies on Tsvangirai’s shoulders and that’s what leadership is all about Mr Prime Minister.
Post published in: Editor: Wilf Mbanga