SADC summit to get tough on Mugabe

SADC’s pointman in the Zimbabwe dialogue, President Zuma has proved to be a even-handed facilitator. Analysts say going by the Livingstone Troika summit, Zuma is prepared to stick out his neck on “regime change” in Harare. The talks with his SADC counterparts on Saturday covers “everything” on Zimbabwe, according to a diplomat, a clear sign that this summit was about placing down broad political markers on the election roadmap.
This summit followed the May 20 extraordinary SADC summit in Windhoek where the Zimbabwe issue was taken off the agenda because Zuma was not available due to local government elections that were underway in his own country. The Windhoek summit preceded the Livingstone Troika summit. The Livingstone meeting of SADC’s security organ was attended by Zambia’s President Rupiah Banda, South African President Jacob Zuma and their Mozambican counterpart Armando Guebuza and issued a damning statement in unusually strong language lambasting Mugabe, who was present together with Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara.
“There must be an immediate end to violence, intimidation, hate speech, harassment, and any other form of action that contradicts the letter and spirit of dialogue,” the leaders from the regional bloc said in a statement after meeting in the Zambian resort of Livingstone.
It was a marked departure from SADC’s known stance of molly coddling Mugabe. While the regional bloc has been accused of being too soft on Mugabe, the bloc is escalating pressure on Harare to avert a repeat of the sham 2008 elections. Political analysts said regional leaders need to maintain the same tone from the Troika summit to prevent the
country lurching from crisis to crisis.

The Heads of State and Government will have an opportunity to finalise the Zimbabwe election roadmap on the sidelines of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Council and Summit in South Africa on Saturday.
Given the escalating political temperature in Harare, the summit was expected to give a greater urgency to resolution of the stand-off. Of all the regional powers, South Africa has demonstrated a consistent, high-level focus on the country, and there is no sign that this is wavering. It is intent on making diplomatic and commercial headway into the northern neighbour. And for SA that alone is important, analysts say.
The absence of a tough public line on Zimbabwe will place SADC in a quandary. But analysts say the tone was already set with with the Troika summit.

Harare-based political analyst Charles Mangongera, believes the summit will go along with the Troika resolution. Describing it as a “crucial meeting” to the future of Zimbabwe, Mangongera said the summit will deal once and for all with all contentious issues in the roadmap and outstanding issues from the GPA.
“They will reaffirm key issues arising from Livingstone. Its a litmus test for Zanu PF which has been sending envoys to the region to lobby for its position. However SADC is likely to stick to its guns on this matter,” Mangongera said.
He said there will be fireworks on charges of political violence, with both parties expected to produce recent developments as an alibi. Zanu PF was likely to use the murder of a cop blamed on MDC supporters to buttress its claims that MDC was violent while the MDC is likely to use the bomb blast at Tendai Biti’s house as proof of Zanu violence.
Prof John Makumbe said SADC has a choice to adopt or amend the election roadmap.
“SADC is likely to insist on the roadmap, a move likely to be resisted by Zanu PF. Zanu PF will have no choice but to buckle to SADC pressure,” he said.
He predicted that SADC “will put its foot down” and throw out Zanu PF’s plan for an early election.
Zanu PF has said nothing short of the adoption of its recent Politburo resolution that elections be held this year will be acceptable.
Zanu PF has dispatched an advance delegation of its spindoctors to do the bidding ahead of the summit. Zanu PF says the GNU has expired and the timeline in the GPA should be followed to the letter.
“Zanu PF is taking a strict interpretation of the GPA. There is going to be fireworks,” said a media and political analyst who cannot be named for professional reasons.