The increasingly erratic behavior of ZANU in Zimbabwe shows that this decadent political party is now in a quandary and is either confused or has no idea which direction or option to follow. Its only option so far has been the unlimited, unrestrained and barbaric use of violence as a Machiavellian strategy to rule the reluctant Zimbabweans.
And it looks like ZANU president Robert Mugabe is now caught in a vicious vortex of not only the struggle for his successor but the utter confusion that reigns supreme in ZANU on issues like how to deal with the constitution- making process and the demands from SADC for a roadmap to free and fair elections.
According to reports, ZANU Politburo members want elections held this year. Yet, the agreed roadmap to elections points to 2012 or 2013 as the most realistic times for free and fair elections.
The big question many people are asking is: Why is ZANU so eager to hold elections this year? Or better still: Why is ZANU interested in any elections at all when they know that they have lost the support of almost the entire Zimbabwean population? Top ZANU officials like Mnangagwa and military officers have all stated publicly that ZANU will not allow the MDC to rule this country—even if Tsvangirai wins.
The nonsensical reasons they give are that MDC and Tsvangirai are what they call “puppets of the West” and that Tsvangirai has no record of participation in the armed struggle for independence.
The answer is very easy. Mugabe and ZANU have now given themselves up for adoption by the military. The military now runs ZANU and the country. If elections are held this year, or any other year, ZANU officials are very much aware they would be wiped out. ZANU will rely on the military to rig the elections to keep them in power, dismantle the inclusive government and remove the MDC-T coalition partners.
ZANU only pays lip service to the global political agreement and to the coalition government. This is why it is estimated 80 percent of the agreement has never been implemented. ZANU also pays lip service to the agreement reached with SADC on the roadmap to free and fair elections.
This is why Mugabe and ZANU are refusing to put in place the necessary conditions for free and fair elections such as security sector reform, licensing independent broadcasting stations, reform the voters roll, repeal of POSA and AIPPA, etc.
The balance sheet is that Mugabe and ZANU havemaintained their stranglehold of political power. The politburo’s statement was simply a reaffirmation of ZANU hegemonic rule in Zimbabwe for nearly 31 years.
The presence of the MDC-T ministers in the coalition government has not effected a fundamental political power shift because ZANU controls the most strategic ministries of defense, local government, information, foreign affairs, justice, agriculture and even the shared home affairs.
In addition, ZANU has emasculated Parliament which rarely meets, and has yet to pass a major piece of legislation to reflect a major shift in power from ZANU.
But Mugabe and ZANU are old fashioned and are using old fashioned means to maintain their rule. The use of violence to keep Zimbabweans oppressed is no longer a viable long-term strategy.
Yes, Mugabe and ZANU have succeeded in using violence for 31 years now. But there are signs of strain in the application of this policylargely because it has not had its intended effect of converting Zimbabweans to support ZANU.
In apartheid South Africa, the Nationalist Party maintained its rule by force from 1948 to 1994, a period of 46 years. But they eventually buckled and collapsed under the very same black majority they were oppressing. In Zimbabwe, most of ZANU violence in the first 10 years of independence was directed at Matabeleland.
After the genocidal massacre of over 20,000 civilians in Matabeleland, ZANU was confident it had inflicted enough fear in Matabeleland to win majority votes in the region that had never voted for ZANU before. In the 1985 elections the people of Matabeleland dealt a punishing blow on ZANU. ZANU did not win a single seat in Matabeleland.
The big lesson which ZANU never learned was that no amount of violence can force people to vote for ZANU. In fact, the more Mugabe’s Fifth Brigade killed people in Matabeleland the more the people vowed they would never vote for ZANU in the elections. And they proved it in the 1985 elections.
ZANU intensified its use of violence in the past 11 years. By the same token, the more violence ZANU unleashes, the more determined people are to vote against ZANU and to vote for the MDC.
They proved it in the 2008 elections. Ironically, ZANU is byits erratic behavior unwittingly campaigning for MDC. MDC rallies draw huge crowds of people who attend voluntarily. ZANU rallies, much smaller in numbers, bring in people bussed or forced to attend by the ZANU militia thugs.
The message for ZANU from the people of Zimbabwe could not be clearer. Mugabe and ZANU were a long time ago dumped into the dustbin of history.
Post published in: Top Bloggers