Through logistical facilitation from OSISA Angola, we met the Angola opposition UNITA Parliamentary Caucus team, representatives from the South African Embassy in Angola, various local civic groups and had radio and television interviews.
These engagements confirmed our fears that Angola remains a closed society where repression is not uncommon. Since independence in 1975, Angola has had two questionable elections in 1992 and 2008, and president Dos Santos has been in power since 1979.
Angola's ruling MPLA is a close ZANU-PF ally, with both Dos Santos and Mugabe having joined hands in the late 1990s to militarily intervene in the Democratic Republic of Congo. There is further widespread speculation that the ship with arms that was denied docking in South Africa sailed on, eventually docking off the Angola coast from where its cargo was sent to Zimbabwe.
Local sources widely speculate that on several occasions Dos Santos may have financially bailed out the Mugabe region. President Mugabe may turn to this close alliance, and to the other former liberation movements in Namibia and Mozambique to water down contents of the final SADC Communique.
On this basis we expect that that final communique will not necessarily reverse progress made but will certainly go for language that does not alienate ZANU-PF. We also expect that there will be a mention of sanctions, perhaps a repeat call for the immediate lifting of sanctions and for SADC to dispatch another team to engage the US, UK and Europe.
It is clear president Zuma will continue as Facilitator, so the communique is likely to be more or less a repeat of the Sandton Summit Communique – urging immediate deployment of SADC Organ Troika representatives to work with the Facilitation Team [this is a climb down from the initial position that the representatives would work directly with JOMIC].
We understand Zambia has already submitted two names of the representatives, but ZANU-PF is still challenging the terms of reference of the representatives on grounds of infringement on sovereignty.
Perhaps SADC will again resort to diplomatic language that has ambiguity and open to varying interpretations and claims of victory by both ZANU-PF and pro-democracy forces. ZANU-PF will not be able to break SADC consensus that president Zuma is building on Zimbabwe given that South Africa has strong economic ties with Angola that may trump Dos Santos' friendship ties with Mugabe – and the same economic ties would prevent Namibia and Swaziland from moving against Zuma leaving Mugabe isolated – perhaps only counting on support from DRC.
In a shocking move, SADC may elevate Malawi to post of vice chair of SADC despite its recent violent clampdown on protestors that left scores dead.
The next update will be a mailing of the final SADC Communique.
Post published in: News