After the political earthquake caused by recent revelations from Wikileaks, an apparently ailing President Robert Mugabe is in a quandary.
He has undergone a series of medical check-ups for what is being touted as cataract surgery over the past year, amid reports he could be plagued by cancer. Several officials, including Jonathan Moyo, are quoted confirming this in the US embassy cables.
The succession issue has become a hot topic in Zimbabwe after the Wikileaks revelations exposed many in the top echelons of Zanu (PF) as "sellouts."
Authoritative sources inside the party say a campaign to prepare the country for the inevitable is under way. But there is tacit acknowledgement that who ever succeeds the veteran Zanu (PF)leader is unlikely to command the same kind of loyalty – given the latest disclosures.
This raises two pertinent questions: Who else is in a position to assume power, and what is in place for Mugabe's succession?
Zanu (PF) is in a terrible position with respect to planning for the succession. For all the time that Mugabe has been in power, he has resisted sharing authority with anyone. He has insisted on making all key decisions himself, maintaining a facade of collectivity through his rubber-stamp Politburo.
On Wednesday the Politburo was too lily-livered to discuss the damning US State department cables. Mugabe strategically refrained from putting the Wikileaks issue on the agenda. Even an earlier meeting with the US ambassador Charles Ray did not touch on the sensitive Wikileaks cables.
Political analysts say its Mugabe's way of saying he will not engage in these frivolities. "It’s brinkmanship," said Sheunesu Moyo, a political commentator.
“Zanu (PF) has maintained a very centralized system of government. Most party officials are unaccustomed to taking responsibility themselves, or making their own decisions. Even Parliamentarians are whipped into line at the instigation of the President.
“The result is that there really isn't much authority in Zimbabwe outside the person of Robert Mugabe. He can make announcements right now about who is designated to succeed him, but almost everyone who's in a position of power in Zanu (PF) – whether it's Joice Mujuru or Emerson Mnagangwa, or whether it's any of these other second-tier contenders – owe their position in power to Mugabe.”
Party officials say General Constantine Chiwenga, head of the Defence Forces, was pushing too hard for action on officials fingered in the cables as a way of propping up his presidential bid.
It is believed there is mounting friction between him and Mnangagwa over his new stated ambition and his crusade. Over recent weeks, Chiwenga has appeared more and more at public functions in a three-piece suit. He has become quite persuasive as a politician.
"He is going around saying mukuru can't trust the civilians anymore given the Wikileaks thing. He wants to use that to achieve his presidential ambitions," said a senior member of the Mnangagwa faction.
Joice Mujuru, who launched her succession campaign just after the mysterious death of her husband, has been the biggest casualty of the Wikileaks cables.
The revelations have reportedly dampened her bid to secure the party's endorsement as the presidential candidate for the next poll against the MDC.
Officials say if protocol is followed, it is a fait accompli that she takes over from the old man when the time comes. Her message of peace and an end to violence has struck a chord with many people. She has also strong support from industry and commerce.
There was an outpouring of emotion on the death of her husband, who she suspects was killed. But one Politburo member said: "Wikileaks is her Waterloo. I tell you she is finished."
Zanu (PF) is expected to meet in Bulawayo for its conference from December 6-10 in Bulawayo to “declare the president of the party elected at congress as the state presidential candidate of the party”.
But the election timetable is crucial to the candidate who will emerge at the Bulawayo indaba. Chiwenga and his comrades in the security forces were reportedly pushing for a snap poll next year, while Mugabe still has the energy to campaign.
Mugabe has brushed aside calls that he must prepare a successor. Once he is gone, analysts warn of a vacuum of authority that could cause complete chaos. Everything that Mugabe said about who he wants to follow after him goes out of the window, because he's not there to make sure it happens.
Mnangangwa, the Minister of Defence, is reportedly facing fierce resistance to his bid, although officials in his faction say he is the front runner. They point to his use of a mini-motorcade and helicopter.
A casualty of the Wikileaks cables, he is the Zanu (PF) secretary for Legal Affairs. But he is lower down the pecking order of succession, with his main rival Joice Mujuru the second in line to succeed Mugabe, according to protocol. But Mnangagwa's loyalties in the powerful Joint Operations Command (JOC) and Mugabe's apparent soft spot for him, makes him a strong contender. And this is the one fact that gives him an upper hand, at least in the short run.
He was the President's chief election agent in the disastrous 2008 poll where he clawed back defeat in a run-off poll blighted by intimidation and gruesome violence. He is tainted by allegations of masterminding violence, but he says he is now a born-again Christian, and a pastor in a local church. He does have great loyalty among the top echelons of the armed forces, apart from Chiwenga.
Post published in: News