2011 in retrospect and 2012 prospects

There has been very little progress made this year with regard to the implementation of the Global Political Agreement. On the political front, this has been a standstill year. Yet this is the year of the so-called Arab Spring, which resulted in the ousting of at least three dictators and the murder of one of them.

John Nkomo
John Nkomo

It is, however, the Arab Spring that has forced the SADC to begin to tighten its screws against President Mugabe and his former liberation party, Zanu (PF). The regional body began to grow teeth – much to Mugabe’s chagrin. But the tightening of the screws on Zimbabwe is still to bear any fruit. Perhaps Zuma’s forthcoming visit to the country will result in a meaningful assessment of what progress the inclusive government has made in fulfilling the dictates of an agreed roadmap to democratic elections.

The year 2011 has been a year of aging and ailing, with President Mugabe making several trips to the Far East, as well as visiting a local medical centre, obviously for specialist attention, given his advanced age and failing health. It has also been a year of a new threat to the nation’s economic recovery as the Zanu (PF) side of the inclusive government, desperate

for a viable electoral gimmick, embarked on the damaging empowerment and economic indigenisation programme. The inclusive government is not entirely agreed on the modalities of undertaking economic indigenisation, and the current efforts are being high-jacked for partisan political mileage at the expense of national economic recovery. This has caused foreign investors to shun Zimbabwe as an investment destination. This has also been worsened by the escalation of violence for the best part of the year, clearly indicating that the social and economic stability brought about as a result of the inauguration of the government of national unity is fast being eroded.

This has also been the year that Zimbabweans went about writing their own constitution. This is still work in progress, although the exercise could be concluded by the end of this year all things being equal. The continued polarisation of the nation has meant that the so-called Organ on Healing and Reconciliation has been totally ineffective in its efforts to get the people of this country come together, forgive each other and be reconciled as a united nation.

The death, if not assassination, of General Solomon Mujuru in August this year marked a sad chapter in the history of this nation. Foul play is suspected, and the relevant authorities are dragging their feet in relation to disclosing the truth about the General’s death.

It is my fear that the year 2012 will have much of the same as the outgoing year. The finalisation of the writing of the new constitution is likely to take the best part of the first half of the year 2012. The numerous outstanding issues that have so far been agreed by the GNU will need to be implemented before any planning for the next elections is undertaken.

Most outstanding issues will remain unresolved and this will result in the next elections being delayed. The elections are only likely to be held in 2013 whether Mugabe likes it or not.

We wait to see the Code of Conduct that is being drawn up by VP John Nkomo, which is aimed at stopping political parties from engaging in violence. In 2012, SADC will apply more pressure on Mugabe and Zanu (PF), but this will be resisted. The MDC is going to continue to be frustrated, but there is little else they can do. There is, however, likely to be divine intervention in the affairs of this country in the year 2012.

Post published in: Opinions & Analysis

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