The new impetus given to the process must have an origin and I suspect it lies within the SADC. It can only have come from a quarter that holds real power and influence here, no western State has such leverage and therefore it must be regional in origin. The President of South Africa has clearly stated that an election in Zimbabwe without the required reforms to make such an event acceptable to the global community would be a futile exercise.
It is now very clear that Zanu (PF) is not going to be allowed to avoid the GPA reform process and hold a violent and manipulated election that they can manage and control.
The demand for the full implementation of the programme of reform means that if it is pursued it will take time. It is unlikely that the referendum can be held in 2012. It may be possible if there are no new obstacles, to hold the referendum in November but this is unlikely. February 2013 is more likely. The voters roll will take another four to five months and the legislation changes will also take time but could be done in tandem. Restructuring the ZEC would take time but again could be done in parallel with the other reforms.
However you look at it, the next elections cannot be held until late 2013, if they are to be a credible test of national public opinion. For the President who will be nearing his 90th year, it will be too late for any serious attempt to secure a final five year term as President. We are therefore now in a transition from the Mugabe era to a new leadership dispensation. This plunges Zanu (PF) into an internal crisis as they now have no choice but to choose a successor.
For the hard liners this is all bad news. They have been trying to mount a number of different efforts to find a solution that would offer them a chance of holding onto power and protect their essential interests. Their last shot is an election under conditions where they can use the present voters roll with 6 million voters on it, 3 million ghost voters and a totally skewed and false voter distribution involving a carefully manipulated delimitation exercise supported by probably 200,000 voters newly settled in peri urban slums controlled by Zanu (PF) thugs.
Then a campaign where only Zanu has any access to radio or TV, meetings are tightly controlled and movement restricted. They will use their financial resources to get millions into their regalia – they have just ordered 2 million caps from Johannesburg. Their campaign will have no financial constraints – already they have bought hundreds of vehicles.
Then they will use an emasculated ZEC under ineffective leadership and total Zanu (PF) staff to allow the Registrar Generals Office to control the ballot, to supervise the count and then control and manipulate the reporting. To back this formidable machine they have mobilized and deployed the Joint Operations Command with activated structures at national, provincial and district level throughout the country.
They have been foiled at every point by a stubborn MDC and a recalcitrant Zuma and the SADC. They are stuck with the GPA and the SADC and I think they are now close to understanding that they have nowhere to go, but down.
A real game changer in all this is the fact that the South Africans now know that elements in Zanu (PF) supported Malema in his efforts to destabilize the country and to try and force Zuma from the Presidency. It’s had the opposite effect to that intended, probably confirmed Zuma in his position and strengthened ANC determination that Zanu (PF) must face the music here at home in a free and fair election.
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