However we do know that he can be ruthless and tough. He is a trained and skillful lawyer and has been in Cabinet for over 30 years on a continuous basis. He is a business man who understands business and has not taken advantage of the land “reform” programme to grab land – he has bought his farms. His fortune is not founded on corruption but on gold buying and trading.
The talk in bars and clubs is that he would conduct a cabinet reshuffle to remove Mujuru loyalists and corrupt elements, install technocrats and then try to get the economy growing rapidly with broad based economic reforms.
The Minister of Finance is in his corner and if you listen to him speak on what is needed you get the impression that they know exactly what is needed to turn the economy around.
They also know what it will take to re-engage the global community and the multilaterals and the talk is that they are ready to take this route. This is the equivalent of the reforms implemented in the Soviet Union and which led to the collapse of the Russian empire.
Mnangagwa is gambling that if he can turn the economy around and get the West reengaged that he will be able to win a contest with Morgan Tsvangirai in 2018 without having to resort to an unacceptable level of rigging – a not unreasonable assumption. But what if that wily old devil Mugabe opts for a third way – Sekeremyi (currently Minister of Defence)? My own feeling is that such a move would attract the attention of both the other camps and his life would be miserable and position unsustainable in an unstable Zimbabwe.
There is no evidence that he can “ride the Tiger” as the Chinese say and such a move would simply exacerbate Mugabe’s problems and deepen the crisis.
Post published in: Opinions & Analysis
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