Three significant new developments this weekend â€“ clear evidence that the ground is slipping under the G40 leadership and the continued interventions by the War Veterans and the Army. The third was the story that Mr. Mugabe, for the first time, has talked of retiring. This was published in the State controlled media and therefore has substance. What that means is that the fight for the succession may be over â€“ Emmerson Mnangagwa is gaining ascendency. The focus now rests on what he will do when he takes over. If this is being considered then Mugabe may step down at the December conference and must then nominate his successor or unleash conditions in Zanu PF close to civil war.
Clearly the political transition is underway, Mr. Mugabeâ€™s retirement, by itself, will start the critical process of restoring confidence. It will also allow the technocrats to take charge and start getting the fiscal situation under control. Harsh measures will be needed and it may be that only a National Transitional Government will be able to take those decisions. Whatever happens it now looks likely that sanity might prevail for once and we may be headed for an election which will meet international standards and allow the people of Zimbabwe the chance to elect new leadership to take the country forward. Nothing else has any hope of addressing our problems.