The Disintegration of Zanu PF

Events are moving fast in Zimbabwe. The economy is close to shut down – traffic levels have declined and shortages of key products such as fuel are appearing despite every effort by the State. The Minister of Finance simply cannot balance the books and is looking at a catastrophic situation in 2017 with falling revenues and near total inability to curb spending and King Canute continues to sit on the beach and say that the tide is not coming in. Mr. Mugabe is now clearly incapable of holding the center and controlling the State – still dangerous and holding constitutional power – like an old man with a weapon of mass destruction in his hands and everyone around him in terror that he will use the thing and kill everyone.

Emmerson Mnangagwa

Emmerson Mnangagwa

Three significant new developments this weekend – clear evidence that the ground is slipping under the G40 leadership and the continued interventions by the War Veterans and the Army. The third was the story that Mr. Mugabe, for the first time, has talked of retiring. This was published in the State controlled media and therefore has substance. What that means is that the fight for the succession may be over – Emmerson Mnangagwa is gaining ascendency. The focus now rests on what he will do when he takes over. If this is being considered then Mugabe may step down at the December conference and must then nominate his successor or unleash conditions in Zanu PF close to civil war.

Clearly the political transition is underway, Mr. Mugabe’s retirement, by itself, will start the critical process of restoring confidence. It will also allow the technocrats to take charge and start getting the fiscal situation under control. Harsh measures will be needed and it may be that only a National Transitional Government will be able to take those decisions. Whatever happens it now looks likely that sanity might prevail for once and we may be headed for an election which will meet international standards and allow the people of Zimbabwe the chance to elect new leadership to take the country forward. Nothing else has any hope of addressing our problems.

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