The centre cannot hold

I was just looking through some newspaper cuttings from 2008 and found plenty we can still reflect on: if we look at the headlines, you might say nothing has changed:

Arthur Guseni Mutambara

WESTERN & AFRICAN LEADERS DISAGREE ON SOLUTION FOR ZIMBABWE

What is new about that?

Or this:

MDC (read “CCC”) MP ‘SAFE IN HIDING’

after he had been abducted by 6 armed men outside the High Court in Mutare.

Or this:

PRESSURE ON BARCLAYS BANK TO PULL OUT OF ZIMBABWE

(read “STANBIC”)

MBEKI SAYS NO LEGITIMATE GOVERNMENT IN ZIMBABWE

  • sounds familiar. A lot of talk but no action.

We even find

RESOLVING THE ZIMBABWEAN CRISIS – It is an armed struggle or constructive dialogue

In this one, Arthur Mutambara (remember him?) appeals for open inclusive dialogue. We have not seen that because one party within the “unity government” refused to make any concessions. Also, we have come to be less enthusiastic about leaving negotiations to politicians, any politicians. I am hearing more people say they would not trust any negotiations that merely included “independent technocrats” in addition to political parties.

If we are to get anywhere, the people’s voices must be heard. We may have thought at one time that NCA was a place where that could happen. The Muzorewa period showed churchmen are as corruptible as the rest of us and may be more easily fooled. We don’t want anyone to speak for us; we want to be heard.

So what has changed in 15 years?

The number of real community organisations has dwindled; some that looked promising have either been infiltrated by ZANU-PF or bought by international donors. We don’t trust NGO professionals; real change makes them uncomfortable. But who can we trust now?

SADC & AU have said a bit more clearly that they don’t recognise the people who claim to have won the last election. But what can we expect from them? They say any solution must come from the people of Zimbabwe, maybe not still meaning that as an excuse for doing nothing. But can they think beyond political parties and “technocrats”? Are they seriously waiting for us, the voters, to come up with something better?

A new election will be meaningless unless someone can organise a free and fair one. The African bodies don’t have the resources for that and why should we expect any better from anyone further afield? We are more aware now of how flawed the 1980 intervention was. Is the alternative armed struggle? Not as long as the present clique holds all the weapons. Things are falling apart, but even if their soldiers and police desert them, how many armed liberation struggles produced peace and justice? Cuba is the only example I can think of where the revolutionary fervour remains alight, but the continuing hostility of the USA fans that. More have gone the way of Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua, a friend of ours in his first years of revolutionary fervour, but now he is as corrupt as the dictatorship he overthrew in 1979.

What if things continue to fall apart? ZANU-PF or the military who pretend there is still a ruling party cannot hold on much longer. They cannot rule, but they can prevent anyone else from ruling. We could sink into the situation of Colombia or Mexico, with local drug lords each controlling their turf.

Our regional “friends” would not want to see that. I see they take the story seriously about 443 unaccompanied children found in 40 buses in one night at Musina. Our gang hastened to deny it, but SADC thinks it is worth investigating (even if the correct number is 3, we hope). If they do anything about that, they will remind the zanies that the neighbours don’t fancy having another Colombia on their doorstep. Whatever they do, it undermines ZANU’s claim to be a government. Making them admit their power is limited would be a step in the right direction.

For the rest, it is up to us to find ways of being heard. That won’t happen if we don’t start discussing what we want.

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