South Africa’s government has changed since the 29 May election, and its policy towards neighbouring states may undergo a shift according to the new foreign minister, Ronald Lamola.
In London on 16 July, Mr Lamola addressed Chatham House, prestigious home for the Royal Institute of International Affairs and told the audience his government still believed, “Zimbabwe needs to find its “own way and its own process towards the future.”
While this sounded like former president Thabo Mbeki’s policy of “quiet diplomacy” in which Pretoria ignored torture, human rights abuse and flawed election in Zimbabwe, Lamola also addressed the problem of coups and rigged elections in Africa. Days before his speech, the NGO Human Rights Watch accused the Mnangagwa government of widespread torture and abuse directed at political opponents.
Lamola said the new government – a coalition between the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) along with smaller parties — would not tolerate or recognise any regime where power had been taken at gunpoint. “I prefer the barrel of a pen,” he said. And there would be closer scrutiny of elections that did not meet the African Union standards for transparency and a free vote.
For more than 20 years, the ruling ZANU-PG party in Zimbabwe has been condemned by western powers and the Commonwealth over elections deemed not to be free and fair.
Mr. Lamola spoke for only 15 minutes followed by an almost two-hour engagement with the audience whose questions ranged from the United Nations and the AGOA trade treaty with the USA, to coal and the recent attempt by Australian mining giant BHP to buy the London-based Anglo American which owns mines in South Africa along with the de Beers diamond company.
The ANC and DA have long been at odds over Pretoria’s closeness to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and its stance against Israel in the Gaza war.
Lamola said the battle for Ukraine could only be settled by negotiation and insisted that Israel should be held accountable by the International Criminal Court at the Hague over the death of thousands of Palestinian civilians.
BHP bid for Anglo American
He said ownership of the South Africa’s resources including coal, platinum, gold and diamonds were covered by existing laws. Earlier this year, Australia’s BHP offered $49bn for the UK company, Anglo American, which has a number of mines in South Africa including a platinum field. Anglo refused to sell, but analysts say there is a high chance of another offer from giants like Rio Tinto, Brazil’s Vale or even BHP.
Lamola said he did not foresee any problem from his government’s side should this happen.
He spoke about Anglo American’s decision — in wake of the failed BHP offer — to sell some of its assets including their platinum field in South Africa, coal mines in Australia and the famous de Beer’s diamond company.
None of the Anglo mines hold a critical place in South Africa’s economy. But diamonds make up two-thirds of Botswana’s exports, in an operation run almost entirely by de Beers.
The sale of de Beers therefore has potential to put Botswana’s economy in the hands of a company or country hostile to the region.
Mr. Lamola said his government would be watching the sale of Anglo’s assets with interest.
Anglo American also owns the platinum mines in Zimbabwe which account for 14% of global supply.
Ian Khama exile
Lamola hinted at a foreign policy that would pay may attention to more attention to issues within the neighbourhood. Asked about former Botswana president Ian Khama’s two-year exile in South Africa, he said the matter had not been raised by the government in Gaborone.
“Mr Khama has never sought our protection or applied for asylum,” he said. “And our relations with Botswana remain excellent.”
On leaving office in 2019, Khama’s successor, former vice president Mokgweetsi Masisi accused him of embezzlement and trying to overthrow the new government. Khama denied the charges but has not been back to the country for two years for fear of arrest.
Masisi offered no evidence for any of the allegations.
On the US trade treaty known as AGOA, Lamola said his government had a delegation in the United States, engaging with both the Democratic Party of President Biden and the Republicans led by Donald Trump. And he reaffirmed South Africa’s support for the United Nations as an arbiter in world disputes.
But Lamola said every person had a right to elect a government of their choosing and to have confidence that the process would be legitimate and free of coercion. Subtle as this sounds, it was a departure from Pretoria’s reluctance to question how the vote is carried out in other countries, including Zimbabwe.
Botswana and Mozambique elections
Mozambique goes to the polls on 9 October and Botswana later that month. Both have been ruled by a single party since independence.
The governing Frelimo in Maputo has selected Daniel Chapo to succeed President Nyusi who is at the end of his two terms as allowed by law. At 47, Chapo is relatively unknown and the first person to head the party who was not involved in the war against Portugal that led to independence in 1976.
Botswana gained independence from Britain in 1966 and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) has won every election since then. But with soaring unemployment and rising inflation, polls by Afrobarometer have shown a lack of support for President Masisi. Rumours about the president’s health have not helped. His brother died from a genetic kidney disease in 2013 though Masisi’s office has said the president is “fit as a fiddle”.
Masisi’s rival at the election, Harvard lawyer Duma Boko, has pledged to restore freedom of the press in his country and to assemble a consortium, possibly including BHP and Anglo American, to buy de Beers and headquarter it in Gaborone.
As to the power cuts that have bedevilled South Africa for more than two years, Lamola said there was no plan to stop using coal to generate electricity. “Coal is a resource we have a lot of, and using it is our decision and ours alone,” he said in response to a question about a switch to wind and solar.
ENDS