Independent analysts say the 87-year-old president’s gamble could have disastrous consequences because the looming presidential race, like the March 2008 vote his ruling Zanu (PF) lost to the MDC, is likely to be decided on the state of the economy and the margin of terror Zanu (PF) decides to employ.
Desperate Zimbabweans pushed into unemployment after a decade of populist and insane economic policies, and frustrated with the GNUs failure to deliver on its promises to create jobs and pay better salaries, form the constituency Mugabe hopes to woo.
The so-called “born-frees” are another demographic Zanu (PF) is eyeing, with catchy tunes meant to appeal to youths flighted ad nauseum on State TV. The youths have been sold the indigenisation mantra, a campaign gimmick that the economy is being placed in the hands of Zimbabweans when in fact it is benefitting only the elite and those closely connected to the regime. Zanu (PF) says it wants to empower the born-free generation whose Gushungo Connection with the past and the future ensures that it shall be forever free.
The vociferous anti-sanctions campaign has no doubt won the support of many mis-informed Zimbabweans given the party’s monopoly of state-run TV and radio stations. The partys notorious spindoctor, Jonathan Moyo, says Zanu (PF) wants the European Court of Justice to adjudicate over the EUs violation of the Cotonou Agreement and the Permanent Court of International Justice, the World Court, which is the primary judicial organ of the UN given that the evil sanctions have not been sanctioned by the UN.
Signficantly, Moyo confirmed the plan to arrest Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai. He said Zanu (PF) was moving to “prosecute individuals, companies or organisations that in any way call for or support the imposition of the evil sanctions; and enacting new laws to close any gaps in the current legislation to enable litigation and the prosecution on sanctions-related issues in and outside Zimbabwe.
Mugabe and his party claim Tsvangirai “invited” sanctions as a strategy to topple them from power and install a puppet government of Western countries. Political analysts say Mugabe is continuing with his empowerment revolution because he sees it as a vote winner for the coming elections, either for himself or his party. He has demanded a harmonised election, while the MDC says only a presidential election should be held.
“Mugabe is pulling out all the stops to ensure it (losing) won’t happen again,” says political commentator Ronald Shumba.
Mugabe has spooked investors by promising his supporters that he will take over all multinational companies saying he has educated Zimbabweans to be engineers and pilots and it was time for the majority blacks to run the multinationals not as CEOs but as shareholders.
Like the often violent and corrupt land reform, it is feared the so-called “third chimurenga” could still lose if the party does not use its tried and tested strategy of waging a violent countrywide terror campaign against the opposition.
Zanu (PF) has drafted what it calls a “hitlist” of multinationals targeted for expropriation and “redistribution” to “marginalised blacks”. Mugabe says the current “chimurenga” completes the unfinished business of the liberation war: economic independence. A Euromoney investment conference, held in Harare amid political bickering a fortnight ago, counselled Harare to be cautious with its empowerment programme, which many investors acknowledged as a good policy initiative which needs “soberness.”
Some political analysts expect Mugabe to abandon his militant approach after the elections if he wins and try to win back crucial donor support lost first over the land policy and now over the policy inconsistencies surrounding indigenisation. “Donors will not renew aid until Zimbabwe respects the rule of law and restores law and order,” said a banking analyst. “Without their support, Mugabe has little chance of addressing this severe foreign currency crisis.
Indigenisation minister Savious Kasukuwere, who is spearheading the campaign, says multinationals have a legal right to appeal against the seizures. But Mugabe and his officials warn it would be futile. In both the anti-sanctions and empowerment chimurengas it is the so-called war veterans (mainly party youths and militia) who have been put in charge. Shumba says Mugabe sees them as his “campaign tool” and the empowerment issue as a campaign issue.
Post published in: News