The election is expected to bring to an end the government of national unity, hence the desperation by political parties to stay alive after the ballot. Maisiri noted that as political parties believed an inclusive government would not work there was a winner-take-all mentality.
“State institutions will have an influence on the electoral process. The first three years of the GNU were dominated by allegations and accusations that politics had corrupted and politicised these institutions. The representation of political parties in these institutions will have a bearing on how each political party fares at the polls. The issue of political balance is of paramount importance,” he said.
Unreformed state institutions such as the security sector were likely to have an influence on the electoral process both prior and post election.
Institutions formed by the GNU but never operational include the Land Audit Commission and National Economic Council, and would be deciding players at the election.
Institutions made by the GNU and which attempted to be operational include the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and the Human Rights Commission. Aborted institutions never heard of include the National Economic Security Commission.
Maisiri said the crucial question was one of public confidence. “What matters most is not how politicians regard the institutions but the respect given them by the people,” said Maisiri. Lack of public dialogue on issues such as transitional justice created uncertainty, fear and interest in what the future holds for some sections of society. This uncertainty would hinder political progress as the curtain closes on the electoral process, he said.
The labour market factor, which in some instances resulted in negotiated accommodation of some politicians as ‘excessive baggage’ in cabinet, would play its part in how the election would be conducted and how the outcome would be received.
The excessive baggage ministers were likely to do everything possible to make the election go their way, for fear over their economic future.
For the election result to be acceptable to both parties, Maisiri said would depend on the role of SADC and the African Union’s long-term observation of countries coming out of elections. The continental body has to remain focused on Zimbabwe long enough after elections to ensure the true outcome of the ballot is protected.
Internal election dynamics as determined by party hardliners from both MDC formations and Zanu (PF) were cited as crucial influences on the electoral process.
Since the hardliners were pushing for a winner-take-all type of election they adopted high risk political tactics at the expense of an acceptable poll result. Their tactics have raised stakes which have ripple effects on the acceptability of the election outcome.
Lack of confidence by political parties given their internal conflicts might put them in a position not to embrace the election result.
In his presentation Maisiri suggested that as a pre-requisite to elections, the rule of law, a credible and competent elections board management, democracy, security and human rights should be firmly in place to help foster acceptability of the outcome.
“It is generally viewed that further reforms would be detrimental to Zanu (PF) while benefiting MDC, so pressure for implementation of outstanding reforms might lead to a deferred election. This is a likely scenario. The challenge now is to consider what should come first – pre-electoral reform or a post- election impasse.”
The future of the election still remains unclear as there is no defined policy for the way forward after the recent Referendum. Good relations between President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai were described as nothing to write home about as one of the two could be taken for a ride.
Maisiri said it was possible for one party to create a situation not conducive for elections in order to defer the polls.
Post published in: News