President of Zimbabwe Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa speaks at the 74th Session of the General Assembly at the United Nations headquarters, in New York, 25 September 2019 in New York, JOHANNES EISELE/AFP via Getty Images
What is expected to happen?
In line with the Zimbabwe Constitution, the country holds national harmonized elections every five years, also called general elections. Hence, the next elections will be held on the 23rd of August 2023 and will include the Presidential, Parliamentary and Local council elections. Following the constitution, If there is no outright winner in the presidential contest (winning with more than 50% votes), a run-off will is held six weeks later (October).
Dubbed as “dry run” to this year’s contested election, the by-election tension, voting process and the extreme political polarization in the country may lead to situations of violence during the election period. Already, politically linked violent events have been reported successively since 2022. The most significant recent examples include some skirmishes reported in recent weeks which led malicious damage to property, livelihoods and infrastructure reported in Nyatsime, Chitungwiza on the outskirts of Harare.
Hence, multiple elements are indicating a possibility of violence in the impending 2023 elections. This analysis highlighted by several analysis from experts, media National and international is premised on the following indicators:
a. The historical trend in Zimbabwe depicts an upsurge of violence around elections time. Inter and intra-political party skirmishes at recent political meetings and the 22 March 2022 By-election. In March 2022, the country held by-elections to fill vacant parliamentary and council seats. The run-up to these by-elections witnessed violence incidences and, in some cases, Red Cross volunteers assisted the victims.
b. There are verbal attacks and counter attacks in the media between the political parties with increased political activism in the country leading to a tense political environment.
c. Lack of political tolerance in some areas which has previously experienced disputed election results which in turn ignited violence.
d. Inadequate reconciliation efforts post 2008 violence and the deaths and injuries in the post 2018 election period which predisposes people towards a tendency of violence as revenge.
e. Possibility of an increase in migration towards the elections as people return to vote.
f. Emerging pressure groups which are not directly affiliated to political parties wield potential influence in political agitation.
g. Proliferation of social media (Facebook, Twitter & WhatsApp) as political mobilization tools may result in mass agitation and protests.
h. The economic challenges and hardships have heightened tension which may cause political agitation and sporadic incidences of public disobedience (riots and protests).
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